President Barack Obama delivers the State of the Union speech before members of Congress in the House chamber of the U.S. Capitol January 12, 2016 in Washington, DC. (Getty)
The American Health Care Act has passed the U.S. House of Representatives, meaning it will now makes its way to the Senate. But can the bill pass there?
That remains to be seen. 51 votes are required for the bill to pass, and there are 52 Republicans in the Senate. However, far more than two Republicans have expressed opposition or at least skepticism in regards to the American Health Care Act. So which Republican Senators might kill the Obamacare replacement?
Four Senators to keep an eye on are Rob Portman, Shelley Moore Capito, Cory Gardner, and Lisa Murkowski. When the American Health Care Act was released in March, they signed a joint letter saying they were concerned about the way the bill deals with Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion.
“While we support efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and make structural reforms to the Medicaid program, we are concerned that the February 10th draft proposal from the House of Representatives does not provide stability and certainty for individuals and families in Medicaid expansion programs or the necessary flexibility for states,” they said in a statement.
Although the American Health Care Act has changed a bit since they made that statement, it’s unlikely that any of those changes really eased these senators’ concerns. Even if just three of those senators vote against the bill, that’s enough for the American Health Care Act to fail.
There’s also Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who put out a statement today raising a number of concerns over the bill and saying, “Although I will carefully review the legislation the House passed today, at this point, there seem to be more questions than answers about its consequences.”ˇ
Senator Collins’ statement on passage of House health care bill #mepolitics t.co/rLeJhNkfnx
Senator Dean Heller also says he is not on board with the American Health Care Act. Once again, this is because of the bill’s cuts to Medicaid.
“We cannot pull the rug out from under states like Nevada that expanded Medicaid and we still need assurances that people with pre-existing conditions will be protected,” he said in a statement today.
Senator Tom Cotton is another senator who has expressed opposition to the bill.
“Despite the proposed amendments, I still cannot support the House health-care bill, nor would it pass the Senate,” he said in March. “The amendments improve the Medicaid reforms in the original bill, but do little to address the core problem of Obamacare: rising premiums and deductibles, which are making insurance unaffordable for too many Arkansans. The House should continue its work on this bill. It’s more important to finally get health-care reform right than to get it fast.”
Finally, although he is not a firm yes or no, one senator who will be worth following during this process is Lindsey Graham, who wrote on Twitter earlier today, “A bill — finalized yesterday, has not been scored, amendments not allowed, and 3 hours final debate — should be viewed with caution.”
A bill — finalized yesterday, has not been scored, amendments not allowed, and 3 hours final debate — should be viewed with caution.
He later said, though, that he looks forward to “carefully reviewing the House-passed legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare.”
What’s clear is that the American Health Care Act in its current form will almost certainly not pass in the Senate. What will likely need to happen, then, is for the Senate to vote on its own version of the bill, at which point the House and the Senate will work out a compromise bill in a conference committee.