Alabama Primary Polling: Was Trump’s Candidate Leading in Polls?

President Donald Trump on Saturday claimed the candidate he endorsed in the Alabama Senate primary runoff was ahead in “many” polls prior to Election Day.

Trump publicly endorsed and campaigned for Sen. Luther Strange in the special election Senate race. Republican challenger Roy Moore won the Republican primary handily September 26, receiving 54.9 percent of the vote to Strange’s 45.1 percent. The race was to replace former Sen. Jeff Sessions, who was appointed by Trump to serve as the United States Attorney General.

Moore’s victory came as Trump and Vice President Mike Pence made stops in Alabama to rally for Strange, and a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell spent millions of advertising dollars on Strange.

“I am especially grateful for the support of President Trump and Vice President Pence, as well as the strong example set by my friends Richard Shelby and Jeff Sessions,” Strange said in a statement following his loss. “I congratulate Roy Moore on the result this evening. May God be with him and may God continue to bless Alabama and the United States of America.”

Moore, a former Supreme Court justice in the state, was elected statewide twice and built up a grassroots following during his tenure. On the Supreme Court, he defied federal orders on same-sex marriage and made controversial comments regarding race and religion. He moves onto the December 12 general election, where he’s on the ballot against Democrat Doug Jones

At a September 22 rally in Huntsville, Trump said Moore would almost certainly lose in the general election to Jones. But if Strange were the one to receive the GOP nomination in the race, “it’s over.” Trump also criticized NFL players for kneeling during the national anthem, called them a “son of a b***h.”

So, how did Strange do in polling leading up to the election? Was Trump accurate in saying Strange was leading Moore in polling leading up to the election. Trump’s claim that Strange was up on Moore according to polls appears to be inaccurate, as Moore held a lead in every publicly-available poll.

Take a look at the polls that were released prior to the election below:

Trafalgar Group

Date polled: September 23-24
Margin of error: +/- 3 percent
Sample size: 1,073
Moore: 57 percent
Strange: 41 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 3 percent

Cygnal

Date polled: September 23-24
Margin of error: +/- 3.1 percent
Sample size: 996
Moore: 52 percent
Strange: 41 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 7 percent

Otimus

Date polled: September 22-23
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percent
Sample size: 1,035
Moore: 55 percent
Strange: 45 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 10 percent

Emerson College

Date polled: September 21-23
Margin of error: +/- 5.1 percent
Sample size: 367
Moore: 50 percent
Strange: 40 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 10 percent

FOX10 News/Strategy Research

Date polled: September 20
Margin of error: +/- 3 percent
Sample size: 2,000
Moore: 54 percent
Strange: 46 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 0 percent

Raycom News Network/Strategy Research

Date polled: September 18
Margin of error: +/- 3 percent
Sample size: 2,930
Moore: 53 percent
Strange: 47 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 0 percent

JMC Analytics

Date polled: September 15-17
Margin of error: +/- 4.4 percent
Sample size: 500
Moore: 47 percent
Strange: 39 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 13 percent

Vote Surveys & Consulting

Date polled: September 9-10
Margin of error: +/- 4 percent
Sample size: 604
Moore: 41 percent
Strange: 40 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 19 percent

Emerson College

Date polled: September 8-9
Margin of error: +/- 5.2 percent
Sample size: 355
Moore: 40 percent
Strange: 26 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 34 percent

Strategic National

Date polled: September 6-7
Margin of error: +/- 3.5 percent
Sample size: 800
Moore: 51 percent
Strange: 35 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: `12 percent

Southeast Research

Date polled: August 29-31
Margin of error: +/- 5 percent
Sample size: 401
Moore: 52 percent
Strange: 36 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 12 percent

Harper Polling

Date polled: August 24-26
Margin of error: +/- 4 percent
Sample size: 600
Moore: 47 percent
Strange: 45 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 8 percent

Voter Surveys & Consulting

Date polled: August 21-23
Margin of error: +/- 4 percent
Sample size: 601
Moore: 45 percent
Strange: 41 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 9 percent

Opinion Savvy

Date polled: August 22
Margin of error: +/- 4.4 percent
Sample size: 494
Moore: 50.3 percent
Strange: 32.2 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 17.5 percent

JMC Analytics

Date polled: August 17-19
Margin of error: +/- 4.3 percent
Sample size: 515
Moore: 51 percent
Strange: 32 percent
Would not vote: 0 percent
Unsure: 17 percent

Cygnal/L2

Date polled: August 8-9
Margin of error: +/- 4.4 percent
Sample size: 99502
Moore: 45 percent
Strange: 34 percent
Would not vote: 8 percent
Unsure: 13 percent

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