What Are the Odds That Brett Kavanaugh Is Appointed to the Supreme Court?

brett kavanaugh fraternity

Getty During his time as an undergraduate at Yale University, Kavanaugh was a member of Delta Kappa Epsilon, a fraternity that was "notorious for disrespecting women."

Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings have been contentious, controversial, and met with extreme resistance from the Democratic senators on the Senate Judiciary Committee- but it’s likely that he’ll be confirmed anyways.

Kavanaugh is also the least favorable Supreme Court nominee of the modern era, with a current net favorability rating over just over zero- but it’s still more likely than not that he’ll be confirmed to the Supreme Court.

Sources to major news publications have consistently confirmed that Kavanaugh has a high chance of securing the 51 votes needed to reach appointment, given that Republicans currently hold 51 voting seats now that the late Sen. McCain has officially been replaced by John Kyl.

Despite the controversies surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, prediction markets are pitting the likelihood of a Kavanaugh appointment prior to the midterms to be extremely high.

Here’s what you need to know.

The Odds of Kavanaugh Being Appointed to the Supreme Court Before October 31 Are Currently Pitted at 90%

Traders at the online prediction market PredictIt give Kavanaugh an average 90% percent chance of appointment before October 31. This is a significant date, given that the November midterms have the potential to flip the house and send the entire Trump administration into a tailspin.

What’s more, PredictIt pits the most favorable number of confirmation votes to be 54, which would require all 51 Republicans as well as three Democrats to vote yea. This currently reflects a likelihood of 29%, with the second highest likelihood of votes being 55.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Kavanaugh has a net confirmation support margin of +5. To put that into perspective, the two other nominees who had a net confirmation support of +10 or lower were Harriet Miers and Robert Bork- and they were both denied a confirmation to the Supreme Court.

Where the Senators Stand on Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Vote

According to Vox, the breakdown of senators voting yea or nay for Kavanaugh (according to their public statements) as of September 6 revealed that 48 senators were likely to vote yea, 41 were likely to oppose, and 11 had yet to make public statements on the matter.

With that said, it would be pretty unlikely for Kavanaugh to receive less than the full Republican vote- excluding two wild cards, Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, who are both pro-life. Murkowski and Collins have both spoken favorably of Kavanaugh leading into the hearings, though.

For the nomination to be sunk, it would require all 49 Democrats as well as one Republican to vote against Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

The list of Senators who have not publicly announced their explicit support or opposition are the following (with an asterisk by their name if they’re up for reelection in 2018):

  • Susan Collins (R-ME)
  • Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
  • Joe Donnelly* (D-IN)
  • Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
  • Heidi Heitkamp* (D-ND)
  • Doug Jones (D-AL)
  • Joe Manchin* (D-WV)
  • Claire McCaskill* (D-MO)
  • Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
  • Bill Nelson* (D-FL)
  • Jon Tester* (D-MT)

Kavanaugh Has Extremely Low Support Ratings From the General Public

Though the general public has no say in whether or not Kavanaugh is appointed, it’s worth noting that Kavanaugh’s confirmation is polling with incredibly low support in the two regions Murkowski and Collins represent: the northeast and the west.

According to The Washington Post, support for Kavanaugh is currently hovering around 38% nationally. In the Northeast, support is hovering at 33%, and in the West, also 33%.

Neither Collins nor Murkowski are up for reelection this term, which is also worth noting.

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