Getty Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Various Political Prediction Markets Reflected a Nosedive for Confirmation Odds in the Last Week
Betting sites say Kavanaugh is toast: t.co/uNWQ1S00HM
Stock in the market for Kavanaugh receiving 49 or fewer votes — meaning that his nomination would fail — skyrocked 12 percentage points to 61 percent, leading up to Ford’s hearing.
Similarly, the British betting exchange Smarkets reflected a drop in Kavanaugh’s confirmation likelihood from 96.2 percent to 71.9 percent as of Monday, September 17.
Kavanaugh’s Public Support Marks a Historic Low for Supreme Court Nominees, Per an NBC Poll
Prediction markets are taking the Kavanaugh allegations seriously.
Senate confirmation vote odds – including Collins & Murkowski – are all down.
There’s now only a 55% chance he will be confirmed this month.
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An NBC/Washington Post poll recently revealed that Kavanaugh is the least-liked Supreme Court nominee in 30 years, since Robert Bork in 1987. Bork was not confirmed to the Supreme Court.
In fact, no Supreme Court nominee with a negative net favorability (meaning that more people disapprove of the nomination than approve of it) has been appointed to the Supreme Court since 1987. Kavanaugh is currently at a -4 net favorability rating; put differently, 34 percent of those polled supported Kavanaugh’s nomination, and 38 percent disapproved of it, as of last Sunday.