The Latest Trump Impeachment Odds [September 24]

Trump Impeachment Odds

Getty Trump's impeachment odds have hovered in the forty-percent range for several months, and might increase in the coming months leading up to the midterms.

Trump’s approval rating currently hovers at 40 percent, per a tracking module by FiveThirtyEight. The president has grown increasingly vocal in recent weeks about the importance of keeping a Republican majority through the 2018 midterms, and even told a crowd in Montana, “If I get impeached, it’s your fault because you didn’t vote.”

A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll reflects Trump’s approval rating to be as low as 36 percent, while an IBD/TIPP poll reflected the same.

Trump’s marked drop in approval is not good news for Republicans as the 2018 midterms loom. If the Democratic party is able to win a majority of seats in the house, then impeachment for the President would start to look like a real possibility.

Here’s what you need to know about Trump’s latest odds of impeachment.


Trump Impeachment Odds Over the Last 90 Days

Trump impeachment odds

PredictItTrump impeachment odds over the last 90 days

The online prediction market PredictIt has several impeachment predictions currently running on the site, including a prediction that Trump has a six percent likelihood of being impeached by 2018, a 43 percent chance that he will be impeached in his first term, and 37 percent chance that he will be impeached by the end of 2019.

These numbers will likely be heavily correlated with the increasing or decreasing likelihood that Democrats flip the House after the 2018 midterms.


Likelihood That Democrats Take the House in the 2018 Midterms

Since there’s virtually no chance a Republican-held House of Representatives would vote to impeach Trump, impeachment odds hinge largely on whether the Democrats can retake the chamber in November’s elections. That’s a scenario that both betting markets and election forecasters view as likely.

According to FiveThirtyEight, there is currently an 80 percent chance that Democrats will take back the House during the midterms, a likelihood which has gone up by two percent in the last week. What’s more, FiveThirtyEight predicts the highest likelihood of the partisan breakdown to be approximately 227 Democrats and 208 Republicans after midterms are over.


Trump’s Most Controversial Moments in the Last Week

Trump’s latest controversial move has been to attack the allegations brought against Brett Kavanaugh by Christine Ford, asking why she didn’t reach out to the police about her claims of attempted rape 30 years ago.

What’s more, New York Times report has raised questions over whether U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein is the NYT op-ed writer, with several sources revealing that Rosenstein considered invoking the 25th Amendment in the spring of 2017. Rosenstein has maintained that the report is inaccurate, and in the meantime, Donald Trump Jr. has accused Rosenstein of being the anonymous op-ed writer who detailed a “secret White House resistance” to The New York Times.

As for Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court, Kavanaugh currently has the lowest support ratings of any Supreme Court nominee in recent history.

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