Getty Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis: Who's ahead in the polls?
Ron DeSantis, the former U.S. Representative and unabashed Donald Trump supporter, has defeated Andrew Gillum, the progressive Tallahassee mayor, after an extremely tight battle in the Florida governor’s race. DeSantis led by less than 1 percent with 99 percent of the votes in.
However, Gillum has conceded the race, so DeSantis will be the next governor of Florida in a race that some people looked at as a referendum on Trump’s chances in 2020, since the president narrowly won Florida in 2016. “We could not be prouder of the way we ran this race,” Gillum said in his concession speech, according to The New York Times. “We recognize that we didn’t win this tonight.”
Here are the latest Florida election results per CNN as of the morning of November 7, 2018:
Ron DeSantis: 49.7% 4,052,546
Andrew Gillum: 49.0% 3,997,008
(99 percent in)
The Times reported that the red areas, such as the panhandle, where Trump campaigned for DeSantis scored high turnout and ultimately boosted the Republican in the race, whereas Gillum ran up tallies in big urban strongholds. “Ron DeSantis showed great courage in his hard fought campaign to become the Governor of Florida. Congratulations to Ron and family!” Trump tweeted.
Track Live Election Results
You can track Florida election results here or here. According to Politico, “In Florida, poll closing times are 7 and 8 p.m. EST. First voting results are expected at 7 p.m. EST.”
Here’s another site to track live Florida election results on November 6, 2018.
What did the latest polling results say in the race? Who was ahead in the polls going into election day?
According to RealClearPolitics, Andrew Gillum led in five of the six latest polls. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Gillum up an average 3.6 percentage points in the closely watched race. You can see all of the polls in the race here. Andrew Gillum led in almost all of the many polls in the race.
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There was a dramatic increase in early voting turnout in 2018 in Florida (and many other states) when compared to 2014. Although it’s risky to predict which party that benefits, some pollsters do bake turnout assumptions into the polls, which could lead to volatility.
DeSantis did lead in the last poll in the race by Trafalgar group. That poll showed DeSantis with 50 percent and Gillum with 47 percent. Trafalgar group was one of the few pollsters that correctly predicted Donald Trump would win the 2016 presidential election. Trafalgar Group is a Republican leaning poll that suspected people were lying to pollsters about whether they supported Trump. So the pollsters started also asking people who they thought their neighbors would vote for and determined the numbers were different. The firm, which is based out of Atlanta, adjusted its numbers to account for people’s hesitance to admit a Trump vote and predicted that Trump would win Pennsylvania and Michigan as well as the electoral college.
Andrew Gillum has excited progressives because of what’s been described as his embracing of an unabashed progressive agenda in Florida. DeSantis is a supporter of President Donald Trump, and some experts see the Florida governor’s race as a referendum on the president.
Here’s a roundup of the latest polls on election day in the Florida governor’s race:
Trafalgar Group [11/04/18 to 11/05/18]
| Andrew Gillum | 47% |
| Ron DeSantis | 50% |
St. Pete Polls [11/03/18 to 11/04/18]
| Andrew Gillum | 50% |
| Ron DeSantis | 45% |
Emerson [11/01/18 to 11/03/18]
| Andrew Gillum | 51% |
| Ron DeSantis | 46% |
HarrisX [10/29/18 to 11/04/18]
| Andrew Gillum | 49% |
| Ron DeSantis | 45% |
Quinnipiac [10/29/18 to 11/04/18]
| Andrew Gillum | 50% |
| Ron DeSantis | 43% |