With the impeachment vote looming, betting odds on whether President Donald Trump will be impeached, removed from office, or re-elected are changing. His odds of being impeached are up, but the odds that he will be removed are still low. Meanwhile, the odds that he’ll be re-elected have increased in recent weeks.
Here are the latest updates on predictions and betting odds, including updates from early on December 18, but they may change as the day progresses and we will update this story throughout the day. Betting odds don’t necessarily translate to actual results, but they can provide insight into bettors’ current views on political situations.
PredictIt Shows a Spike in the Betting Odds of Trump Being Impeached
The odds that Trump will be impeached in his first term have been increasing now that an impeachment vote in the House is likely today. The price of a “yes” share on Predictit jumped to 97 cents. It’s been steadily rising over the last seven days, after taking a brief dip earlier this week. This represents a 97 percent chance the House will vote on impeachment charges against Trump. This does not indicate the chance of removal, since removal requires a 2/3 Senate vote convicting Trump of the impeachment allegations.
As you can see in the PredictIt chart below, the price of Trump’s betting odds for being impeached jumped this week, after seeing a brief dip around the 12th.
PredictIt
As of early morning Wednesday, December 18, the price of a “yes” share was about the 97 cents. To see the current betting odds, you can go to PredictIt here.
Betting Odds Are Low that the Senate Will Remove Trump from Office
Betting odds are low that the Senate will actually convict Trump and remove him from office. A conviction requires 2/3 Senate majority, which would require 20 Republican Senators to vote for impeachment.
As of early morning Wednesday, December 18, the “yes” price was only 11 cents.
PredictIt
That represents an 11 percent chance that he will be convicted by the Senate. Pretty low at this point. It shows a slight rise in price approaching 12 cents, up from 8 cents earlier this week. But still not big odds.
Over the last 30 days, it actually fell a little.
PredictIt
To see the current betting odds on whether Trump will be removed by the Senate, you can go to PredictIt here.
Odds Watch Has a Live Tracker Showing Low Odds that Trump Will Actually Leave Office Early
Odds Watch has an interesting live tracker for betting odds regarding Trump from Betfair. It’s auto-generated and shows the current percentage chance that Trump will leave office before the end of his first term.
The betting odds were at a 20 percent chance on Betfair on September 24, following Pelosi’s announcement that they would start an impeachment inquiry. Interestingly, the betting odds have increasingly decreased over time. They had a slight spike in November and are actually lower now. The betting odds that he will leave office are at 14 percent.
Odds.Watch
You can track the results live here. The odds are updated every 15 minutes or so.
OddsShark Now Lists Trump as a Slight Favorite to Be Re-Elected
Meanwhile, OddsShark still lists Trump as the favorite for winning the election, even with the looming impeaching. Bovada showed Trump’s re-election odds moving from +130 on November 21 to -105 on December 17. Joe Biden’s stayed about the same at +600. Bernie Sanders went from +900 to +800. Pete Buttigieg went from +750 to +1000, a significant decrease in odds. Elizabeth Warren went from +550 to +1200. In November she had much better odds and topped the chart, right behind Trump, at her chance at being elected. For some reason, her odds have dropped since.
OddsShark has -1100 odds for Trump being impeached in his first term, but that is different from being removed. Overall, Trump still leads in odds to win the 2020 election, according to OddsShark.