The Morning Consult’s latest, post-convention stats were the results of polling from 18,465 voters, while the Pennsylvania results from the NBC/Marist poll had a margin of error of +/-4.4% of 771 likely voters. The Miami Herald/Bendixen & Amandi International poll was conducted among 500 likely Miami-Dade County voters and had a margin of error or +/-4.4%.
Nationally, Biden leads in the race with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 46%, according to Morning Consult.
An NBC/Marist Poll on Pennsylvania Shows Biden Ahead
Lotta polling out this morning and it's mostly been in a direction our model likes for Biden. The most influential number is in Pennsylvania, where Marist has Biden up 9 among likely voters. That gets Biden up to +5.1 in Pennsylvania from +4.1 before.https://t.co/wKbW02AGO5 pic.twitter.com/hDZtxcMiEg
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 9, 2020
In his home state of Pennsylvania, Biden is expected to carry the state by nine points at 53% versus Trump’s 44%, according to an NBC News/Marist Poll released September 9. Trump supporters show slightly more enthusiasm in Pennsylvania with 85% of Trump supporters indicating strong support for their choice of candidate, versus 76% of Biden supporters. Among suburban women, 61% view Biden favorably versus just 32% who view Trump favorably – Biden also leads with independent voters at 57%.
On who would better handle the following issues, here is how Marist poll results shake out:
- Trump leads Biden on the economy (51%-41%)
- Trump and Biden are tied (45%)
- Biden leads on coronavirus (53%-38%) and racial issues (56%-35%)
Following the poll results, the Washington Post reported that Vice President Mike Pence is planning on heading to Pennsylvania, likely hoping to cut into Biden’s lead.
The Latest NBC/Morning Consult Poll Shows Some Battleground States May Still Be in Play
Arizona: Biden up 52-42
Georgia: Biden up 49-46
Michigan: Biden up 52-42
Wisconsin: Biden up 52-43
Colorado: Biden up 51-41
Texas: Trump up 48-47
Minnesota: Biden up 50-43
Ohio: Trump up 50-45
NC: Biden up 49-47
Pennsylvania: Biden up 49-45
FL: Biden up 49-47
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 1, 2020
According to the poll, Trump is ahead in Ohio (50%-45%), while Biden leads in the states of Colorado (49%-43%), Florida (50%-45%), Michigan (52%-43%), Minnesota (49%-44%), Pennsylvania (50%-45%) and Wisconsin (51%-43%). The two are statistically tied based on the poll’s margin of error (+/- 2-4%) in Arizona (Biden advantage 49%-46%), Georgia (Trump advantage 48%-46%), North Carolina (Biden advantage 48%-47%), and Texas (tied at 46%).
The poll shows that Trump gained at least one or more percentage points after the conventions in Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Biden gained four percentage points in Arizona and at one or two in Colorado, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin are considered battleground states; Trump leads in Ohio, but the other states are either led by Biden or statistically tied.
On other topics, based on a poll of nearly 2,000 registered voters, 54% of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling on the virus and 40% approve. Biden leads in a Morning Consult poll released September 2 on the issue of public safety among suburban (49%-38%), female (49%-36%) and independent (41%-34%) voters.
Trump Holds an Advantage With Cuban Voters
— Fabiola Santiago (@fabiolasantiago) September 9, 2020
A Miami Herald/Bendixen & Amandi International poll found that Biden leads Trump 55% to 38%, but lags significantly among Cuban voters. Among Hispanic voters, Trump (47%) and Biden (46%) are statistically tied, while Trump has a significant advantage with Cuban voters (68% to 30%) and Biden has a significant advantage over non-Cuban Hispanic voters (58% to 32%).
Political analysts are speculating that the difference in numbers is attributable to anti-socialism sentiment among the Cuban community and Trump ads specifically attacking Biden as a left-wing radical. However, analysts are suggesting Trump’s response to Hurricane Maria — which led to a migration of at least 53,000 Puerto Rican voters to the States, according to WBUR — as well as his immigration policies and rhetoric, may have pushed non-Cuban Hispanic voters more towards Biden.
Latinos for Trump, Trump’s organizing platform, has been active for a year while Latinos Con Biden, Biden’s organizing platform, has only emerged in recent months. Pew Research reported that Cubans have historically voted more conservatively even though both Obama (in both terms) and Clinton carried the Hispanic vote in the last three elections.
Trump has traditionally enjoyed a surprising amount of support from Latino voters, as a USA Today opinion piece noted, leading many to worry that Biden is leaving a large voting block untapped. Chuck Rochas, Bernie Sander’s senior advisor who specialized in outreach to Latinos, said Biden’s outreach strategy is weak.
“The Biden campaign got a late start because of the coronavirus. They just started really doing aggressive Spanish-language and Latino-focused outreach through paid communications,” Rochas told Vox. Less than 1% of Joe Biden’s super PAC money went to Latino super PACS, Rochas said, adding, “It seems like the Latino vote is not being taken seriously by activists around the country, because again, even after I proved that it’s possible for us to get out if we’re funded.”