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It’s abundantly clear the impact that Juan Soto has had on the New York Yankees so far. The right fielder’s energy has been infectious — and his numbers are stellar through the Bronx Bombers’ first 31 games.
The 25-year-old, acquired in a seven-player trade with the San Diego Padres, is batting .325 with 8 home runs and 25 RBI. His .438 OBP is the best in the American League; he’s drawn an AL-best 25 walks already. And he’s had eight multi-hit games, including three of his first four in pinstripes.
And though it’s still extremely early in the season, both sportsbooks and a recent MLB.com poll have Soto as the front-runner for AL MVP.
He received 38 of a possible 45 first-place votes in the survey, ranking clearly ahead of breakout Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr., the Los Angeles Angels resurgent outfielder Mike Trout (who has since suffered a torn meniscus and is out indefinitely) and Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros. Witt and Altuve are both among the league leaders in most offensive categories.
Before the season, The Athletic predicted Soto would win the MVP award.
Outside of shortstop Anthony Volpe, Childish Bambino has been arguably the lone bright spot on a team that, despite a 19-12 record, has a lineup filled with struggling bats — most notably former MVP Aaron Judge.
Why Juan Soto Could End Up With the Award
The projections and pedigree are certainly in his favor. He helped the Nationals win a World Series in 2019 at just 21. He’s a three-time All-Star who finished sixth in the MVP voting last season and is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
FanGraphs is predicting a 6.7 WAR season from Soto that includes a .284 average, 38 homers, 103 RBI and an MLB-best 170 wRC+. MLB.com was also bullish on the generational talent, projecting him to club 39 long balls, draw 132 walks and rack up 6.8 WAR, with a 171 wRC+.
Not only that, Soto is playing — and thriving — in the spotlight. More multi-hit games and go-ahead home runs for a likely playoff team should carry plenty of weight come voting. Plus, his defense hasn’t been as atrocious as we’re accustomed to.
Oh, and he doesn’t have to compete against Shohei Ohtani for the American League honors.
Why MVP Could Go to Someone Else
As recently retired Yankees broadcaster John Sterling has famously said, “You can’t predict baseball.”
While health has been on Soto’s side — he played in all 162 games last season with the Padres — the Bronx Bombers were decimated by injuries last year, and are currently without ace Gerrit Cole. Playing in right field to mask his defensive deficiencies — and the occasional DH or off day — should help.
Perhaps the Yanks will be stuck home again come October. ESPN fantasy and betting analyst AJ Mass certainly thinks so, pointing to the stout AL East the Bombers reside in. The Orioles are just ahead of New York in first, and have an emerging MVP candidate of their own in Gunnar Henderson, the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year.
Even if New York makes the postseason, maybe Soto won’t be able to put the lineup on his back for a full campaign. Or maybe one of the aforementioned players string together a better season. Altuve is already putting together a solid campaign. Henderson has an OPS+ of 182 and has some sluggers around him — notably Colton Cowser, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg.
Witt’s odds are also increasing.
But what does Soto think about his chances?
“I think it’s way too early,” Soto told The Athletic, laughing. “It feels great. They just support me every day, day in and day out. It just feels amazing.”
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