Getty Josh Jacobs of the Raiders
It’s not definite, because once NFL free agency hits, things can go a little haywire. But if things hold true to form for the Las Vegas Raiders and for the running-back market in general, it’s very likely that star back Josh Jacobs will land elsewhere in March.
And that means, with the quad injury that has held him out for the last four games, Jacobs may not play for the Raiders again.
That was the assertion from The Athletic writer Tashan Reed, the site’s Raiders insider. As he noted this week, “Running back Josh Jacobs won’t play in the Las Vegas Raiders’ season finale against the Denver Broncos on Sunday. … Although this week’s game doesn’t carry much significance — the Raiders (7-9) have already been eliminated from the playoffs — Jacobs’ absence is still notable given it means he may have already played his final game with the franchise.”
That’s a rough bit of news for Raiders Nation, given that, before this season, Jacobs had established himself as a star, with back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns to open his career, including an Offensive Rookie of the Year award to open his NFL tenure and a Pro Bowl selection in his second year.
And he was, arguably, the best running back in the NFL last season, with 1,658 yards, most in the league.
A Raiders Star From the Beginning
Still, as last offseason taught us, teams do not much value running backs in the NFL these days. Case in point is the NFL draft. With their No. 24 overall pick in 2019, the Raiders selected Josh Jacobs out of Alabama.
Since then, there was only one running back taken in the first round, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, by the Chiefs with the 32nd pick in 2020. And when Jacobs attempted a holdout for a long-term contract from the Raiders, he did not get one and ended his holdout having won almost no concessions from the team.
Jacobs’ numbers this season have not done much to force the Raiders into giving him a big contract, either. He tallied 805 yards in 13 games, averaging a particularly poor 3.5 yards per attempt. Pro Football Focus graded Jacobs as the No. 1 running back out of 60 in 2022, but this year, he is just 48th out of 61.
Also not helping the future of Josh Jacobs in Las Vegas is the performance of Zamir White in his place. In three games as the starter, White has tallied 285 yards and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. White is in his second season and is under contract for $1.2 million next year and $1.3 million the next year.
Josh Jacobs Could Return on Lowball Deal
Josh Jacobs’ market value is, according to Spotrac, $10.8 million per year, putting him line for what the site projects to be a $43 million contract over four years. It would be hard for the Raiders to justify paying Jacobs that given how well White has played in his place.
But if the running-back market continues to sag, Jacobs could be brought back on a cheaper deal than his market value, perhaps something in the lowball range of what Miles Sanders got from the Panthers (four years, $24.5 million) in the 2022 offseason, after he had earned a Pro Bowl nod while with the Eagles. A salary of $6 million per year is something the Raiders could justify.
But $10 million per year might be too hefty, as Spotrac wrote two months ago. “The Yards per Attempt have completely fallen off of a cliff (4.9 in 2022, 3.3 in 2023), and he’s fumbling at the highest rate of his career to go along with it,” the site noted. “The Josh Jacobs we’ve seen on our screens this season won’t approach a $10M per year contract.”
Comments