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With jobs on the line and athletes playing for future contracts, the New York Giants (2-11) are not actively trying to lose games the rest of the season, but a large contingent of Big Blue fans have made it painfully clear that they’d prefer to “tank” for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
For those NYG supporters in particular, there was finally a bit of positive news on December 10.
“Per @PFN365, the NY [Giants] have — by far — the best chance at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft at 38.9%,” Big Blue View’s Ed Valentine relayed on X. “The [New England] Patriots [(3-10)] are next at 18%, with the [Las Vegas] Raiders [(2-11)] at 16.6%.”
In a follow-up article, Valentine noted that he determined these odds using Pro Football Network’s simulator tool, which uses “a proprietary, state-of-the-art algorithm” to predict the results of the remaining games on each team’s schedule.
NFL Insider Says Giants Currently Hold No. 1 Overall Pick Over Raiders Entering Week 15
In terms of record entering Week 15, the Giants and the Raiders are currently locked in a two-way tie at the bottom.
Tankathon lists the Raiders ahead of the Giants for the No. 1 pick as of December 10, but ESPN NFL insider Field Yates reported the opposite on X, stating that the Giants are now at one. When followers questioned Yates in his replies, he doubled down, explaining: “To clarify as many people are responding [that the Giants are second]; per the official waiver order for NFL teams, the Giants currently have the edge for the number 1 pick, ahead of the Raiders.”
This head-to-head battle could end up being very important if the Giants determine that they have interest in Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. The Raiders are thought to be the “preferred destination” for Sanders and his team — headed by his father Deion Sanders — although none of that speculation has been proven accurate.
The Giants will close out the 2024 campaign at home versus the Baltimore Ravens (8-5), on the road against the Atlanta Falcons (6-7), at home facing the Indianapolis Colts (6-7) and on the road in Philadelphia to close out the season versus the division-leading Eagles (11-2).
As for the Raiders and Patriots, below are their remaining schedules:
- Raiders: Falcons (6-7) at home, Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10) at home, New Orleans Saints (5-8) on the road, Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) at home.
- Patriots: Arizona Cardinals (6-7) on the road, Buffalo Bills (10-3) on the road, Chargers (8-5) at home, Bills (10-3) at home.
The Carolina Panthers, Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets and Cleveland Browns all remain in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick at 3-10 — similar to the Patriots. Having said that, New England has better odds of finishing last due to their schedule.
One More Giants Win Could Shift NFL Draft Odds for the No. 1 Overall Pick
It goes without saying, but even one more win would likely shift these odds dramatically, giving the Pats, Raiders or any of the 3-10 teams a much better shot at the No. 1 overall pick.
The Giants have the best percentage — in large part — because they’re expected to lose every game the rest of the way. After all, the Ravens and Eagles are top-tier playoff teams, and the Falcons and Colts are middle-of-the-pack but the fact that they’re in contention gives them a lot more to play for.
If you’re among those rooting for the tank, one scenario to watch could be the Eagles pulling their starters in Week 18. The Giants beat Philadelphia to close out the year in 2023, and although it was a meaningless game for both teams in terms immediate impact, the victory did help drop Big Blue in the draft order.
And when a meaningless win costs you a potential quarterback of the future like Drake Maye or Sanders, it becomes very meaningful very quickly — except, in a negative way.
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Giants Fans Get Positive Update on Draft Odds for No. 1 Overall Pick