The Pittsburgh Steelers community and the national media has put most of their focus on the offensive side of the roster this summer. Having said that, it’s likely the Steelers defense that will once again carry the team if they make a run in 2024.
The stars are well-known. T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter Jr., Alex Highsmith and newcomer Patrick Queen — among others. But how about a “bold” breakout candidate that could make a name for himself in 2024?
During an NFL preview on September 1, ESPN analytics expert Seth Walder predicted that a Nick Herbig breakout “is coming” in 2024. Going one step further, he also projected that the second-year edge rusher “will record at least 7.0 sacks” in a rotational role this season.
“Among pass rushers with between 40 and 150 pass rushes from the edge with a win or a loss (essentially nonstarters), Herbig ranked second in pass rush win rate at the position at 26%,” Walder explained. “He’s behind T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, but I think he’ll produce when given a chance.”
Herbig was selected in round four of the 2023 draft. He put together a decent rookie campaign (3.0 sacks, 5 tackles for a loss, 2 forced fumbles) despite only appearing on 17% of the Steelers’ defensive snaps.
How Many Sacks Could Steelers’ Edge Trio Combine for in 2024?
If Herbig develops the way Walder thinks he could, the Steelers would easily have one of the top edge rusher trios in all of football.
At his best, Watt obviously has “sack king” potential, tying the regular season record in 2021. Conservatively speaking, however, the first-team All-Pro pass rusher is typically good for 14-plus sacks when healthy since 2019.
Highsmith has started just about every game over the past three seasons. His career-high sack total was 14.5 in 2022, but the former third-round pick only combined for 13.0 sacks if you add together his other two performances in 2021 and 2023.
Right now, it’s fair to estimate about 7.0 sacks from Highsmith with the upside potential for more.
As mentioned above, Herbig only achieved 3.0 sacks as a rookie. And Walder deemed his 7.0-sack prediction “bold” for a reason.
Let’s say Herbig gets to 5.0 instead — improving on his 2023 campaign by two — you might say this edge rusher trio has a realistic floor of 26.0 or 27.0 sacks assuming health. For a measured and conservative projection, that’s an impressive potential total from just three defensive contributors.
For example, according to Pro Football Reference, the Carolina Panthers’ entire team only sacked the quarterback 27 times in 2023. Pittsburgh posted 47.0 sacks during the regular season last year.
Steelers’ Depth & Experience on Defensive Side Called ‘Biggest Strength’ Heading Into 2024
During the same ESPN preview, beat reporter Brooke Pryor listed the Steelers’ “deep [and] veteran defense” as their greatest strength heading into the new season.
“With the circus around the Steelers’ quarterback competition, the team’s defense has been largely overlooked,” she wrote. “But with additions such as ILBs Patrick Queen and [rookie] Payton Wilson, S DeShon Elliott and CB Donte Jackson, a defense that held opponents to 19.7 PPG in 2023 reloaded.”
Pryor added that Fitzpatrick “should make more plays in a strengthened secondary. And in the front seven, up-and-comers Keeanu Benton, Nick Herbig and Wilson are showing signs of being contributors.”
Of course, the 2024 defense could also be helped by an improved offense. If Russell Wilson or Justin Fields can move the ball for a prolonged stretch of the season, that’s good news for this unit’s potential.
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Steelers Draft Pick’s ‘Breakout Is Coming’ in 2024, Says Analyst