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Clinton vs. Trump: Some Latest Presidential Polls Show Closer Race

(COMBO) This combination of pictures created on October 09, 2016 shows Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during the second presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri on October 9, 2016.  / AFP / Paul J. Richards        (Photo credit should read PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Getty)

A major 2016 presidential poll released on Sunday, October 30 shows that the presidential race nationally is tightening back to a virtual tie, matching a trend line seen in recent polling averages that find a closer contest.

Hillary Clinton has led in other recent national polls, however, so overall the latest presidential polls show a mixed bag. It’s important, of course, to not read too much into one poll. Patterns and averages can tell you more.

The most recent poll getting attention – by ABC News/Washington Post – shows Clinton with a 1-point lead over Donald Trump that is in the margin for error. The poll found more Republicans coming home for Trump, and Independents breaking his way. This was the same poll that also generated interest when, just a few days ago, it showed Clinton up a whopping 12 percentage points. The margin was 2 points for Clinton the day before.

The poll also found that 34 percent of likely voters are less likely to vote for Clinton because of the new FBI review into emails.

The RealClearPolitics four-way presidential polling average has Clinton up an average 3.4 percentage points from polling encompassing October 20-29, which is down from the previous week and even the day before. FiveThirtyEight’s average of Clinton vs. Trump has her up 5.5 percentage points on October 28, down from 5.8 the day before and 6.4 percentage points on October 26.

It will take several days to learn how FBI Director James Comey’s controversial letter to Congress will alter the race, if at all, as most recent presidential polls don’t yet reflect the time period of his letter. However, the ABC poll was conducted over a three-day time period that ended the day the Comey letter was released.

But some recent presidential polls show the race continues to tighten, with Donald Trump regaining some momentum after dropping in the polls earlier in October due to the string of sexual misconduct allegations lodged against him. The race was virtually tied in September until those allegations. Before September, Clinton had a healthy lead for most of the summer.

Of course, national polls can only tell us so much; a close look at key battleground states can be more instructive, and recent polling has also found a tightening in some swing states. However, some states have tightened in Trump’s favor recently, and some have tightened for Clinton, and the Democratic nominee led solidly in other battleground states (like Virginia and Colorado) and was even in striking distance in some reliably red states like Arizona and Texas. That’s why sites that use statistical models to predict the election, using Electoral College predictions, still have Clinton as the overwhelming favorite. For example, Five Thirty Eight gives Clinton an 81.1% chance to win the presidency.

A new battleground poll out of North Carolina October 30 found Clinton with a 6 point lead, and a poll out of Florida gave Clinton a 1 point lead, which is basically a tie, said CNN.

Hillary Clinton quid pro quo, FBI emails, Clinton FBI investigation, private email server, Hillary Clinton email server, Hillary Clinton crimes, Hillary Clinton indicted

FBI Director James Comey. (Getty)

Comey’s letter could be a gamechanger, but it depends on how it plays. The Clinton campaign has mounted a fierce pushback, with Clinton herself saying that she found Comey’s letter deeply troubling and others criticizing the FBI director for a vague letter that violated past practice to not do anything that could be perceived as interfering in an election.

CNN reported, “Investigators believe it’s likely the newly recovered trove will include emails that were deleted from the Clinton server before the FBI took possession of it as part of that earlier investigation,” and they are seeking a warrant to review them.

The letter also could energize Clinton turnout of voters who might not have turned out before because she looked like a lock to win. However, obviously, emails and the FBI is not the subject that Clinton wanted to be talking about in the waning days of the election (especially with the election already showing some tightening), and Trump has highlighted the Comey development on the campaign trail as it dominates the news cycle. The disclosure could also help Trump rally holdout Republicans to his side.

Comey, in the letter, had told Congress that the FBI was going to investigate newly discovered emails to see if they were significant to the past FBI investigation into Clinton’s private email server. The New York Times and others have since reported that the emails were found on a device owned by Anthony Weiner, who is separated from long-time Clinton aide Huma Abedin. The FBI has not yet obtained a warrant for the emails, and it’s not clear who sent them or what they contain.

Here’s what you need to know, as of October 30:


ABC News/Washington Post

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

The ABC News/Washington Post poll was released Sunday, October 30. The race is now in the margin for error of three percent, a virtual tie. The poll was conducted October 25-28, 2016.

Most of those who said they are less likely to vote for Clinton because of the Comey letter were already planning not to support her, said ABC, but the finding could energize turnout.

It shows a tightening of the race. Clinton led in the same poll by 12 points in the first four days of the tracking poll. However, there has been at least a 7 point shift in Trump’s favor in the last few days, said ABC.

ABC said the shift is because more Republicans are now energized to vote, and they are more likely to back Trump than before. Furthermore, the poll found fewer weak Hillary voters were likely to vote, but the poll said that might be because she was leading in the polls so people didn’t think she needed their vote to win. Of course, the Comey letter could change that. Trump’s support among independents has also grown, said ABC.

Some have criticized the methodology of the ABC poll.


LA Times/USC

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 46.2%
Clinton 43.8%

The LA Times/USC poll is a daily tracking poll so this result was measured on October 29, after the Comey letter release. However, this poll has consistently scored Trump better than other polls.


IPSO

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 41.7%
Trump 36.4%

The Reuters/IPSO poll was taken the day before the Comey letter. It found good news for Clinton as her lead was outside the margin for error. This poll has not found the tightening of the race seen in the new ABC poll.


IBD/TIPP

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 44.5%
Trump 40.6%

This tracking poll found Clinton with a solid lead. The poll was conducted October 23-28.


Times Picayune Lucid National Tracking Poll

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 43%
Trump 40%

This poll has found a slight tightening of the race in Trump’s favor, although Clinton still leads.

The polling was for October 27, the day before the Comey letter. The poll does not include a sampling error because those participating in the poll are volunteers and were not randomly selected.


Battleground States

Here are the RealClearPolitics averages for key battleground states. They almost entirely include polls taken just before the Comey letter release.

Trump leading:
Georgia (2.8%)

Clinton leading:
Pennsylvania (5.2%)
New Hampshire (5.2%)
Michigan (6.2%)
Wisconsin (6.5%)
North Carolina (2.5%)
Colorado (6.2%)
Virginia (8.0%)
Maine (5.2%)

Virtual tie:
Florida (Clinton 0.4%)
Ohio (Trump 1.0%)
Iowa (Trump 1.4%)
Nevada (Clinton 1.7%)
Arizona (Clinton 1.5%)

Clinton vs. Trump Presidential Polls: Which Battleground States Are Tightening?

2016 presidential polls show some battleground states are tightening - for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Here's a list of tightening states in Clinton vs. Trump.

Click here to read more

Hillary Clinton & Anthony Weiner: Memes & Jokes You Need to See

The memes and jokes were flying about Hillary Clinton and Anthony Weiner after FBI Director James Comey sent a controversial letter saying the FBI was reviewing more emails.

Click here to read more

U.S. Senate Latest Polls in Toss Up States: Could the Democrats Take Control?

Latest U.S. Senate polls shows control of the Senate is for grabs as a number of races are still toss ups. Democrats have a chance to take control.

Click here to read more

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54 comments

    • you are right anonymous. comey shoud resign to save his butt. he is dump trump puppet. like trump will do anything to discredit Clinton. because of what he did fellow voters will go out on election day to vote. they were confident that if they do not vote clinton will win anyway, but now they will go out and vote. Hillary the fit and extremely qualified candidate for US Pres. will break that cling ad make history…

      • Oh she will make history alright. Just not how u think. She is obamas little puppet going to finish off the raping of our rights that obama couldnt get done in time before his rein has finished. The FEMA concentration camps are finished and ready thanks to obama. Now hillary will execute phase 2 (the round up of all christians and potentual threats to their rein of terror). Remeber YOU voted for this. Pat yourselves on the back. Feel great about yourselves that you helped bring the mass execution of innocent people and children. God willing if Trump wins he will stop this from happening. You stupid brainwashed women voting for hillary because she has a vagina like you, is that a logical reason for voting for a monster because its a female? Forget theres other women in this race for president aswell? So why hillary just because she a woman? She has done soooo much damage to this country under the titles she has already had and now she going for the highest title of them all where she can do far worse damage. You know she says women have the right to murder their child even just after its born? You can sugar-coat murder by calling it abortion all you want but it dont change the fact that its still murder. God will deal with all you baby killers!

  1. I praise Comey for coming out with the letter before the election, he should inform the American Voters so they have all the facts before voting!!

    • What exactly is it that he informed voters about? No FACTS!! Once uniformed people read ambiguous statements they believe them. Sounds like desperate Trumpers move!!

      • The facts will be throwed in your face after the FBI finish their investigation! And ur also believing ambiguous statements when u believe these lieing ass paid hillary supporters that are accusing trump of sexual assaults. Why they all just now coming out? If u was raped wouldnt you go straight to the police right then and not wait until the guy is about to win presidency? Can you idiots not think for yourselves and see the pattern of hillarys lies? She is trying to win presidency and she is using every weapon in her arsenal to do so no matter how many lies or how much money she has to pay others to lie to get it done. Think for yourself dont be a sheep lead to the slaughter house. Do you not know about the gillitins obama had put in all these FEMA concentration camps? Who you think is going to do the round ups putting YOU in them? Obamas lil puppet Hillary thats who…

      • Exactly, where are the facts? “It may or may not” is not considered facts! And how did Trump know before hand what Comey was going to do? This was according to Trump’s d-i-l.

        • Who cares if trump told comey to investigate or not? The fact remains she did something that needs investigating and if it took somebody to push the law to do it then atleast its getting done before she becomes president and not after. Your arguement is pathetic on this case. Facts are in her silence on the subject when she is asked and refuses to talk about them but instead starts bringing up lies on trump to get off the subject. Have u not watched the debates and seen her face when the subject comes up and her reactions? Does that alone not tell u she is hiding something very big that will cost her much more then just the president seat?

  2. This presidential race should not be close.We have way to many moronic and corrupt people voting.
    The results should be Clinton 100 percent, Trump 0 percent.
    It’s a total joke. Trump does not qualify for a job as janitor in the White House!
    I voted for the nasty woman Monday!

    • The only moron is you.
      We need a person who actually cares about the American people,
      Not letting in hundreds of thousands refugees.
      No Vetting.
      What areas do you think they will put them in ?
      YOURS…………
      When you have to be checked at every place you go , Malls , Movie theaters , Casinos .
      What are you going to call this ?
      The new NORM>>>>>>>>>>>

    • It is a folly to assume that the campaign of Clinton with the quisling establishment and media is going to convince voters not to waste their time voting for Donald Trump. The media can act as if Clinton has already won and give us polling results with HC with an insurmountable lead, however most Trump voters know post Brexit that this is just standard propaganda from the left. In fact it has generated huuuge backlash judging by the 20+ thousand people rallies versus poor Hilary can’t fill a gym and even at that half of them are paid money to generate enthusiasm and cheering.

  3. Can not imagine Clinton as president.
    National security at risk.
    Crooked .
    Bill back in white house again.
    Does not know what (c) means Which is classified for all you liberals.
    Thinks she can push Russia around when China and Iran back them, will start a world war.
    Clinton foundation taking money from terrorist groups.

    Should I continue ??????????????

    • I believe strongly that Almighty GOD loves THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA and He will cause His ultimate will to prevail in this Presidential election. The Holy Book, Bible, says,” many are the devices in the Heart of a man but only the Counsel of God that will stand”. I would encourage Hilary Clinton to hold unto GOD who has the final say. Let every Lover of God go out and vote for Hilary Clinton. If she has done anything wrong in the course of her service to humanity God will justify Her and show her compassion as she is getting elected as the first American woman President. Her victory is unfathomable but undeniable. May God bless United States of America. May the Peace of God reign supreme in this Great Country of GOD. We should all continue to pray and thank Almighty God. I love USA. Victor.

      • The Almighty God has nothing to do with corruption that is so obvious in this election. It is a proven fact that Clinton is a liar and a corrupt person. So God is not friend of liars. To lie is to committ sin in the eyes of God. How can any American trust a liar. How can any American believe what she says. Clinton is proven to be a pathalogical liar. She does not deserve nor can be trust to hold the highest Authority in the land. I would advice all American to choose Trump to be president at least he loves this country and will do what is right to make America great again.

        • And you honestly can believe Trump doesn’t lie?? What about his showing his taxes. Oh I suppose you think that’s o.k.!! If there was nothing wrong he should quit lying about that!!

          • Trump is a loser, rapist and a bigot, get I’m the hell out of the political arena. Can’t stand looking at that ugly mug, grosses me out and make me want to puke.

        • Than GOD MUST REALLY BE AT TRUMP FOR RAPING S LITTLE GIRL AND GROPING 12 WOMEN AND LYING ABOUT THAT COMES OUT IF HIS MOUTH

          • All those sexual assaults being accused on trump is just more proof how dirty clinton is playing. Funny these ppl come forward NOW and not when it “happened”. Trump has a model for a wife. Compared to these accusers his wife is a goddess! He never did a thing to these ppl. They should be thrown in prison with hillary for these lies. Hillary paid these ppl and u idiots only prove ur dumb enough to believe lies. An investigation is going on hillarys emails and soon u will all see she funded ISIS and sold american assets to foriegn countries and she is involved with multiple murders of those whom accused her husband of sexual assault and she also involved in drug smuggling. This is the real monster u gullible retards are helping to put into the highest seat of power in our country. I hope trump enforces the death penalty on this traitor to our nation!

          • Is Trump accused of adultry? All those accusing him were from years ago, probably before he was married. At least one of the accusers has been discredited; too many inconsistancies in her story. Her so-called facts have been proven wrong. Did Trump ever do anything inappropriate with a woman? Maybe. Did her ever say anything inappropriate? Yes.
            Where was all the moral outrage when Bill Clinton was assaulting and raping women? To this day he hasn’t been charged with rape. It’s just dirty tricks by Clinton. They tried to destroy Mitt Romney too and he is a very good man. The Democrats have tried to destroy ever Republican candidate. Just check what they said about Regan; that he was loose cannon and they were afraid he might press the nuclear button. By the way, for those of you who don’t know, the President cannot launch a missile strike by himself. He has to relay launch codes to a military commander who makes the decision. He can override the president if he thinks the president is acting irrationally. Then the commander relays it to two people who have to both push the button. This could all happen quickly, but is still has 3 layers.

    • What facts are you talking about? No one has read those emails so it’s just a guess about what’s in them. That’s not facts.

      • Voting for hillary just because she a woman makes u a sexist retard. And why would she delete the emails when asked for them if she didnt have something to hide? That alone should prove she cant be trusted. Yet so many of u idiots will still vote for her. Insanity = voting the same people into office expecting better results….

            • The word is rumors; not roomers. Your spelling indicates the educational level of those supporting Clinton. Clinton supporters say everything about Clinton is rumors and unproven, but whatever they hear about Trump is the gospel truth, even though the accusations against him from women in the past are not proven either. Who cares what the candidates do in their private lives?; all I care about is who can run the country properly and get us back on the road of economic recovery. Both Trump and Clinton have skeletons in their closets, but Clinton has so many now they are starting to fill up that closet and fall out in increasing numbers. Also, Clinton has done so many illegal things; Trump has mostly obeyed the law, unless possibly he touched women inappropriately–until they file assault charges and it goes to court and he is found guilty, he is still considered law abiding. I don’t know if you can say the same about Hillary.

        • And you honestly can believe Trump doesn’t lie?? What about his showing his taxes. Oh I suppose you think that’s o.k.!! If there was nothing wrong he should quit lying about that!!and how many emails did Bush, Chaney delete, in the millions. Think no Potus has never done that?!?!

          • Trump admits his wrong doings even in the debates. Hillary on the other hand wont say a thing about her emails because what she is hiding is FAR WORSE then ANYTHING trump has ever done. Trump is a business man therefor the things he did had NO effect on our nation what so ever. Hillary on the other hand is a person in seat of power therefor EVERYTHING she has done has DIRECT effect on our nation! She and Obama have stripped soooo many of our rights from us behind closed doors and only letting us know ONE TIME WITHOUT ALOT OF PUBLICITY ON THE SUBJECTS of these “rights rapings” and didnt let much attention be known of their actions so there would be no mass uproars. Thats why u only hear about law changes 1 time on the news and nothing more about it so u will forget about it. The entire obama administration should be put to death as traitors to the nation just as the founding fathers said to do to these kind of people. Go ahead and vote hillary into office and see how much more of obamas “changes” will come.

          • Show his taxes? Really? Common sense, which is lacking in liberals, says Obama’s IRS would be all over him. That is unless your Al Sharpton, then you give him a ride. And common sense says if Trump was accused, going to trial etc for raping a child the liberal media would be on it 24/7. Take baby steps and face the music….”the party’s over.”……

        • Why does hillary keep changing her views everytime she runs for an office? She against gays now she for gays. She against abortion now she for abortion. The list goes on and on. She is playing everyone for fools just to get votes. If its popular she will say she is for it even if she really isnt. Thats a textbook liar. Hell the woman even fakes accents according to which state she “rallies” in. I quotate rallies because her gatherings are a pathetic excuse for a rally. Cant even fill up a gym. Her rally numbers all put together wouldnt even make up 2-3 of trumps rally numbers. Yet somehow she is leading? The media is only promoting their candidate and down playing trump. Can you say propaganda?

  4. We need to get rid of this corrupted voting system! No need for electoral or elites or populars or delicates votes. Needs only to be ONE vote per person in this country regardless of who they are or their title and it all goes into 1 poll. Who cares what state the votes come from? We all suffer from the results. The person with the most votes wins! To hell with a handful of people deciding the outcome. The choice belongs to EVERYBODY not just them. Anyone caught rigging the elections should be hung from a tree infront of the white house and beaten until dead and left there as an example. Call this tree “the traitors tree”

  5. Hillary was indited. Legally she had to provide the emails/information requested.

    Therefore, once they uncover evidence that Hillary destroyed emails, the FBI is forced to reopen the case.

    Comey’s letter confirms the case has been reopened.

  6. There polls are bullshit. If Trump draws ten thousand at a rally and Clinton only has a few hundred and some of those paid to be there its obvious its a rigged election!

  7. Fact Clintons took donations for earthquake victims in Haiti . Victims never received money.
    Fact Clintons organized meeting between Canadian mining company that deals in uranium and President of Kazakhstan . End result Rosatom (the Russian Atomic energy agency) took over the Canadian company after it acquired the lucrative mines and 20% of the US uranium production.
    Fact former owner of Canadian company gave Clintons generous amount of cash for arranging said meeting .ball park figure of $33million
    this can all be found on news reports from US and other countries. Now who is in bed with Putin!!!

  8. Polls are a crock of shit..PA shows Hellery leading…BS ..I’ve been all over PA and only seen a hand full of Hellery signs and hundreds of Trump signs also i know a LOT of people all over PA and NONE are for Hellery..

  9. It is obvious that Comey did this on purpose this close to the election date. He is a Trump supporter. These emails will not show anything. Don’t hold your breath Trump supporters. We shall see how Hillary win this battle. Oh how I wish this whole thing is over. Sick and tired of news and emails, and all the garbage and lies come with it. Trump, show your tax returns. Has everyone forgotten that?

    • Trump said he will show his tax returns when hillary shows her emails. But hillary refuses to even comment on her emails. Yet trump says that he is still going to show his tax returns AFTER the audit is finished regarless if hillary shows emails r not. He is against crooked politicians (even within his own party) which is why he is losing in the delicates votes (aka corrupted politicians) but winning with the people whom have common sense to vote for the right person (trump) to get rid of the corrupted politicians thats been ruining this country for far too long. Putin has been saying for years now about how america is trying force world war 3 on them ragardless of his attempts to avoid it. You

      • You vote for hillary (1 of these politicians trying to provoke ww3) then u can count on ww3 happening. Also thanks for force cutting my previous statement heavy.com.

  10. A criminal investigation needs to be opened on trump.If i or anyone was accused of doing the same as him would be arrested.If i said some “I can shoot someone in the middle of the street and not lose a vote” My happy ass would be talking to the police and I’m sure it wouldn’t be friendly.He has no business being the leader of anything.He promotes violence and hate,owes god only knows how many countries.I wouldn’t doubt him being behind the hacking being done which doesn’t seem like anyone’s being charged with .I know some want to vote for him but i believe that would be a huge mistake Russians hack computers and trump likes Russia.If trump wins do you not think favors will not be asked as payment and who knows the true cost. He has a mental problem and needs to bow out and talk to a therapist.When he loses i want to see trump in cuffs.This new e-mail deal is meant to distract you.A favorite among republicans.Not to mention convenient.When asked if he respects women he said “I can’t say that” And what’s sad is it’s true.