Clinton vs. Trump: Some Latest Presidential Polls Show Closer Race

(COMBO) This combination of pictures created on October 09, 2016 shows Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during the second presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri on October 9, 2016.  / AFP / Paul J. Richards        (Photo credit should read PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Getty)

A major 2016 presidential poll released on Sunday, October 30 shows that the presidential race nationally is tightening back to a virtual tie, matching a trend line seen in recent polling averages that find a closer contest.

Hillary Clinton has led in other recent national polls, however, so overall the latest presidential polls show a mixed bag. It’s important, of course, to not read too much into one poll. Patterns and averages can tell you more.

The most recent poll getting attention – by ABC News/Washington Post – shows Clinton with a 1-point lead over Donald Trump that is in the margin for error. The poll found more Republicans coming home for Trump, and Independents breaking his way. This was the same poll that also generated interest when, just a few days ago, it showed Clinton up a whopping 12 percentage points. The margin was 2 points for Clinton the day before.

The poll also found that 34 percent of likely voters are less likely to vote for Clinton because of the new FBI review into emails.

The RealClearPolitics four-way presidential polling average has Clinton up an average 3.4 percentage points from polling encompassing October 20-29, which is down from the previous week and even the day before. FiveThirtyEight’s average of Clinton vs. Trump has her up 5.5 percentage points on October 28, down from 5.8 the day before and 6.4 percentage points on October 26.

It will take several days to learn how FBI Director James Comey’s controversial letter to Congress will alter the race, if at all, as most recent presidential polls don’t yet reflect the time period of his letter. However, the ABC poll was conducted over a three-day time period that ended the day the Comey letter was released.

But some recent presidential polls show the race continues to tighten, with Donald Trump regaining some momentum after dropping in the polls earlier in October due to the string of sexual misconduct allegations lodged against him. The race was virtually tied in September until those allegations. Before September, Clinton had a healthy lead for most of the summer.

Of course, national polls can only tell us so much; a close look at key battleground states can be more instructive, and recent polling has also found a tightening in some swing states. However, some states have tightened in Trump’s favor recently, and some have tightened for Clinton, and the Democratic nominee led solidly in other battleground states (like Virginia and Colorado) and was even in striking distance in some reliably red states like Arizona and Texas. That’s why sites that use statistical models to predict the election, using Electoral College predictions, still have Clinton as the overwhelming favorite. For example, Five Thirty Eight gives Clinton an 81.1% chance to win the presidency.

A new battleground poll out of North Carolina October 30 found Clinton with a 6 point lead, and a poll out of Florida gave Clinton a 1 point lead, which is basically a tie, said CNN.

Hillary Clinton quid pro quo, FBI emails, Clinton FBI investigation, private email server, Hillary Clinton email server, Hillary Clinton crimes, Hillary Clinton indicted

FBI Director James Comey. (Getty)

Comey’s letter could be a gamechanger, but it depends on how it plays. The Clinton campaign has mounted a fierce pushback, with Clinton herself saying that she found Comey’s letter deeply troubling and others criticizing the FBI director for a vague letter that violated past practice to not do anything that could be perceived as interfering in an election.

CNN reported, “Investigators believe it’s likely the newly recovered trove will include emails that were deleted from the Clinton server before the FBI took possession of it as part of that earlier investigation,” and they are seeking a warrant to review them.

The letter also could energize Clinton turnout of voters who might not have turned out before because she looked like a lock to win. However, obviously, emails and the FBI is not the subject that Clinton wanted to be talking about in the waning days of the election (especially with the election already showing some tightening), and Trump has highlighted the Comey development on the campaign trail as it dominates the news cycle. The disclosure could also help Trump rally holdout Republicans to his side.

Comey, in the letter, had told Congress that the FBI was going to investigate newly discovered emails to see if they were significant to the past FBI investigation into Clinton’s private email server. The New York Times and others have since reported that the emails were found on a device owned by Anthony Weiner, who is separated from long-time Clinton aide Huma Abedin. The FBI has not yet obtained a warrant for the emails, and it’s not clear who sent them or what they contain.

Here’s what you need to know, as of October 30:


ABC News/Washington Post

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

The ABC News/Washington Post poll was released Sunday, October 30. The race is now in the margin for error of three percent, a virtual tie. The poll was conducted October 25-28, 2016.

Most of those who said they are less likely to vote for Clinton because of the Comey letter were already planning not to support her, said ABC, but the finding could energize turnout.

It shows a tightening of the race. Clinton led in the same poll by 12 points in the first four days of the tracking poll. However, there has been at least a 7 point shift in Trump’s favor in the last few days, said ABC.

ABC said the shift is because more Republicans are now energized to vote, and they are more likely to back Trump than before. Furthermore, the poll found fewer weak Hillary voters were likely to vote, but the poll said that might be because she was leading in the polls so people didn’t think she needed their vote to win. Of course, the Comey letter could change that. Trump’s support among independents has also grown, said ABC.

Some have criticized the methodology of the ABC poll.


LA Times/USC

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 46.2%
Clinton 43.8%

The LA Times/USC poll is a daily tracking poll so this result was measured on October 29, after the Comey letter release. However, this poll has consistently scored Trump better than other polls.


IPSO

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 41.7%
Trump 36.4%

The Reuters/IPSO poll was taken the day before the Comey letter. It found good news for Clinton as her lead was outside the margin for error. This poll has not found the tightening of the race seen in the new ABC poll.


IBD/TIPP

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 44.5%
Trump 40.6%

This tracking poll found Clinton with a solid lead. The poll was conducted October 23-28.


Times Picayune Lucid National Tracking Poll

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 43%
Trump 40%

This poll has found a slight tightening of the race in Trump’s favor, although Clinton still leads.

The polling was for October 27, the day before the Comey letter. The poll does not include a sampling error because those participating in the poll are volunteers and were not randomly selected.


Battleground States

Here are the RealClearPolitics averages for key battleground states. They almost entirely include polls taken just before the Comey letter release.

Trump leading:
Georgia (2.8%)

Clinton leading:
Pennsylvania (5.2%)
New Hampshire (5.2%)
Michigan (6.2%)
Wisconsin (6.5%)
North Carolina (2.5%)
Colorado (6.2%)
Virginia (8.0%)
Maine (5.2%)

Virtual tie:
Florida (Clinton 0.4%)
Ohio (Trump 1.0%)
Iowa (Trump 1.4%)
Nevada (Clinton 1.7%)
Arizona (Clinton 1.5%)

54 Comments

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54 Comments

Anonymous

I praise Comey for coming out with the letter before the election, he should inform the American Voters so they have all the facts before voting!!

Nasty woman

What exactly is it that he informed voters about? No FACTS!! Once uniformed people read ambiguous statements they believe them. Sounds like desperate Trumpers move!!

Anonymous

The facts will be throwed in your face after the FBI finish their investigation! And ur also believing ambiguous statements when u believe these lieing ass paid hillary supporters that are accusing trump of sexual assaults. Why they all just now coming out? If u was raped wouldnt you go straight to the police right then and not wait until the guy is about to win presidency? Can you idiots not think for yourselves and see the pattern of hillarys lies? She is trying to win presidency and she is using every weapon in her arsenal to do so no matter how many lies or how much money she has to pay others to lie to get it done. Think for yourself dont be a sheep lead to the slaughter house. Do you not know about the gillitins obama had put in all these FEMA concentration camps? Who you think is going to do the round ups putting YOU in them? Obamas lil puppet Hillary thats who…

Nasty Latina

Exactly, where are the facts? “It may or may not” is not considered facts! And how did Trump know before hand what Comey was going to do? This was according to Trump’s d-i-l.

Anonymous

Who cares if trump told comey to investigate or not? The fact remains she did something that needs investigating and if it took somebody to push the law to do it then atleast its getting done before she becomes president and not after. Your arguement is pathetic on this case. Facts are in her silence on the subject when she is asked and refuses to talk about them but instead starts bringing up lies on trump to get off the subject. Have u not watched the debates and seen her face when the subject comes up and her reactions? Does that alone not tell u she is hiding something very big that will cost her much more then just the president seat?

Anonymous

Comedy should be ashamed of himself. I think the Democratic Party should sue him fir not following the hatch rule.

jennifer smith

you are right anonymous. comey shoud resign to save his butt. he is dump trump puppet. like trump will do anything to discredit Clinton. because of what he did fellow voters will go out on election day to vote. they were confident that if they do not vote clinton will win anyway, but now they will go out and vote. Hillary the fit and extremely qualified candidate for US Pres. will break that cling ad make history…

Anonymous

Oh she will make history alright. Just not how u think. She is obamas little puppet going to finish off the raping of our rights that obama couldnt get done in time before his rein has finished. The FEMA concentration camps are finished and ready thanks to obama. Now hillary will execute phase 2 (the round up of all christians and potentual threats to their rein of terror). Remeber YOU voted for this. Pat yourselves on the back. Feel great about yourselves that you helped bring the mass execution of innocent people and children. God willing if Trump wins he will stop this from happening. You stupid brainwashed women voting for hillary because she has a vagina like you, is that a logical reason for voting for a monster because its a female? Forget theres other women in this race for president aswell? So why hillary just because she a woman? She has done soooo much damage to this country under the titles she has already had and now she going for the highest title of them all where she can do far worse damage. You know she says women have the right to murder their child even just after its born? You can sugar-coat murder by calling it abortion all you want but it dont change the fact that its still murder. God will deal with all you baby killers!

Anonymous

i think its about time they nailed her ass to the wall I would never follow a murderer

Bill Clinton

God bless Jim Comey! Justice will be served! Hillary for prison

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