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2016 Exit Polls vs. Actual Results: Here’s What May Have Happened

2016 exit polls, Did Clinton win election, voter fraud 2016, presidential exit polls, Did Donald Trump lose election, 2016 Presidential Election, results, Wisconsin results, 2016 popular Vote, Michigan results, Pennsylvania results, rigged election

According to 2016 exit polls, Hillary Clinton (above) won four key swing states and should have won the election. What happened? (Getty)

Exit polls from the 2016 presidential election showed Hillary Clinton winning four crucial swing states that, when the final vote tallies came in, were actually won by Donald Trump. The discrepancy between the exit poll results and the raw vote total count has led to suspicions that the election was “rigged” in favor of Trump.

Was it? And what do the exit polls actually tell us about who won the election?

Using exit poll totals compiled by election researcher Theodore de Macedo Soares, seen in the table below on this page as well as available at this link, compared to an ongoing tally of raw votes totals posted at this link by Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report, here is the discrepancy that has caused the suspicions of what Trump himself would call a “rigged election.”

Note that actual vote totals are compiled as of November 16.


FLORIDA — 29 Electoral Votes

(numbers equal percentage points)

Exit Polls: Clinton 47.7, Trump 46.4 — Clinton wins by 1.3

Actual: Clinton 47.8, Trump 49.0 — Trump wins by 1.2

Trump gain between exit polls and actual results: 2.5


NORTH CAROLINA — 15 Electoral Votes

Exit Polls: Clinton 48.6, Trump 46.5 — Clinton wins by 2.1

Actual: Clinton 46.1, Trump 49.9 — Trump wins by 3.8

Trump gain: 5.9


PENNSYLVANIA — 20 Electoral Votes

Exit Polls: Clinton 50.5, Trump 46.1 — Clinton wins by 4.4

Actual: Clinton 47.6, Trump 48.8 — Trump wins by 1.2

Trump gain: 5.6


WISCONSIN — 10 Electoral Votes

Exit Polls: Clinton 48.2, Trump 44.3 — Clinton wins by 3.9

Actual: Clinton 47.6, Trump 48.8 — Trump wins by 1.2

Trump gain: 5.1


2016 exit polls, Did Clinton win election, voter fraud 2016, presidential exit polls, Did Donald Trump lose election, 2016 Presidential Election, results, Wisconsin results, 2016 popular Vote, Michigan results, Pennsylvania results, rigged election

Exit poll table compiled by TDMSResearch.com.

The final Electoral College vote totals show Trump, including the four states listed above, earning 306 electoral votes. Clinton collected 232.

With 270 of the 538 available required to win the presidency, Clinton fell 38 electoral votes short of victory. If the exit polls had reflected actual results in any three out of the four swing states — Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Clinton would be president-elect today.

Also, if exit polls had been correct in Florida and only one of the other three swing states, Clinton would have won the election.

Clinton, as of November 16 with reportedly several million votes nationwide yet to be counted, led the national popular vote by 0.9 percentage points, or approximately 1.6 million votes.

So what happened? Here are four possible explanations, some of them innocent — others, maybe not so much.


Exit Polls Don’t Fully Account for Early Voting

One firm, Edison Research, conducts exit polling for all major news outlets. Edison only recently started polling voters by phone prior to election day, to get statistics on early voting results. But the popularity of early and mail-in voting has exploded and Edison’s methods can’t keep up.

“The exit poll understands the huge role early voters will play — pollsters estimated to Pew that 35 to 40 percent of all voting will happen early this year — but it’s not clear that their polling can accurately capture who those people are,” explained Dara Lind of Vox.com in an article published last week. “It runs into the problems any phone poll has — namely, that it’s difficult to poll people who only have mobile phones. And because this year saw such a huge surge in early voting, it’s hard to use past years to predict how representative a sample is.”


Early Election Day Results: Clinton Leads Florida, Ohio — Races Look Tight

Early estimated results are coming in from the exit polling service VoteCastr, and they show Hillary Clinton leading in two states.

Click here to read more

The ‘Red Shift’ Phenomenon

Jonathan Simon, a researcher who has been studying exit poll data for 15 years and authored the book Code Red: Computerized Election Theft and the New American Century, says that his research has uncovered a pattern he has termed “red shift,” the tendency for exit polls to show lower results for “red,” or Republican, candidates compared to final vote totals.

“Election fraud has been occurring via the targeting and manipulation of computerized voting equipment across America,” Simon says in the publicity materials for his book.

But in an interview this week with the news site Raw Story, Simon was more restrained.

“We’re stuck at a place where I pivoted to is looking at the risk involved in having a computerized, privatized, unobservable vote counting system and just taking on faith that that system is not being manipulated when there is such a obvious vulnerability (on which the experts strongly agree) of the system to malfeasance and manipulation,” Simon told the site. “That is where I’ve tended to go, is to look at that risk rather than screaming fraud from the rooftops and claiming proof.”

Simon said that he’s reached the conclusion that due to the imprecise methodology of exit polls and the possibility of manipulation in computerized vote counts, neither system is trustworthy.


Voter Suppression

Investigative reporter Greg Palast alleges that voter suppression techniques employed by Republicans eliminated the votes of, potentially, millions of minority voters who would be expected to vote for the Democratic candidate.

“This country is violently divided. There simply aren’t enough white guys to elect Trump nor a Republican Senate,” Palast said in an interview TheLondonEconomic.com site. “The only way they could win was to eliminate the votes of non-white guys—and they did so by tossing black provisional ballots into the dumpster, new strict voter ID laws that saw students and low income voters turned away—the list goes on.”

Among the voter suppression methods identified by Palest, a multi-state system known as Crosscheck — supposedly designed to check for voters who have registered more than once, allegedly to prevent fraudulent multiple voting — may have wrongly invalidated thousands or even million of votes.


Exit Poll Data is Simply Not an Accurate Predictor of Vote Totals

Statisticians say that exit poll data, while well-intentioned, is inherently flawed as a way to predict final vote totals. Due to the need to compile nearly instantaneous results, exit pollsters rely on statistical models that may be outdated by the time an election rolls around.

“Edison developed its statistical models months before the vote, and long before there were any pre-election polls suggesting which candidate was likely to win a given race,” wrote Joshua Holand earlier this year in The Nation magazine. “Conspiracy theorists would have you believe that a corrupt wizard is sitting behind the curtains, making decisions about how to weight the data as the results come in order to cover up election theft. The reality is that Edison has a bunch of statistical models that have been sitting on a computer since last fall, and they plug information into them as it comes in.”

Statistician Nate Cohn of The New York Times Upshot has also warned of the unreliability of exit poll data.

“Exit polls are an exciting piece of Election Day information. They’re just not perfect. The problem with them is that most analysts and readers treat them as if they’re infallible,” Cohn wrote in 2014. “Once you realize that the exit polls aren’t perfect and start to ask yourself which results are actually right, it becomes clear that a lot of exit poll findings don’t quite work.”

While exit polling in other countries is often used as a method to check the accuracy of final totals and to detect fraud, those polls differ in significant respects from methods used in American election exit polls. For example, Holland explained, exit polls in other countries consist of only two questions in many cases, rather than the cumbersome list of 20 questions — or more — on U.S. exit polls.

The shorter polls lead to significantly higher rates of response, creating a larger sample size which gives a much better indicator of what the final result will be.

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72 comments

  1. Okay ! take this BS article to the steps of the White House to Congress the Senate and see how far it goes.
    This type of article does nothing more than to incite racial tensions ,putting White Americans in danger of assault and in danger of life and limb.

    • Your an idiot Back in the 80s when Affirmative Action was the crying call of every bigot in America all we heard was REVERSE DISCRIMINATION but shockingly the suburbs got whiter and do did the work place and eventually Univetsities went from 3 black non sports scholarship students to 6! But thanks to the Color Blind Freedom Fighters of the Right Wing now there are 2 !!!! And how ironic Blacks still make up less than 15% of the total population and are responsible for Obama winning twice and now all of a sudden all White folks voted for
      Trump. Trump called the Kettle Black
      and the United States is now a toy
      for the Plutocrats who really run this
      nation!

  2. Clinton deceived by the Medias who were fabricated fake polls , as if she was leading by 10 ,sometime 12 points. that made her relaxed and not to do well as trump did during the campaign.

  3. And this is why Trump won. People were afraid to admit they supported trump because they would be labeled with the same false labels used on trump.
    You lost, get over it.

    • You’re claiming that the trumpsters who giddily freeped online “polls” after the debates to make trump “win”, were shy about making trump “win” a real poll.

  4. Have you ever thought that someone, such as myself, may have just said I voted Clinton ;) Or been in an area with CRAZY liberals who persecute and attack people based on their political views, therefore telling them that they said they voted for Clinton? Imagine walking out of a suburb or Chicago and having someone ask who you voted for? Democrats are crazy and the common republican just nods and smiles as that is the easiest way to deal with them. Also note many republicans had to get back to work and don’t have time for exit polls.

      • Trump supporters don’t go out rioting in the streets and beating up Clinton people…You’re an idiot. Liberals are the ones out there with the big mouths screaming racist, mysoginist, homophobic, etc. with not one shred of proof one is except that they support Trump, are pro life, pro US sovereignty with borders. etc. You people are the antithesis to the Constitution and everything this country was founded on and stands for. I have a suggestionn for you why don’t you all move to the middle east or some other country if you don’t like what this country stands for. Sick of you whiners!

    • So if tis is true, we should ignore it so as to not “ruffle any feathers”, huh?
      Liberals “attack and persecute”……..? What color is the sun in your reality?

      • Have you been under a rock? Liberals are downright VENOMOUS to conservatives, *particularly* to Trump supporters. Do you think non-racists like being accused of bigotry based solely on their political views? That would be liberals “attacking and persecuting.” How about the riots destroying cities around the country. Pretty sure that would count as liberals “attacking and persecuting.” Do you remember how bad the riots were after Obama won? Yeah, neither do I.

    • How about providing a single example of “Democrats are crazy” or “persecute and attack”? But at least we understand why you voted Trump: facts don’t matter to you.

  5. Obviously, elections were rigged to elect Trump. Trump will be the most corrupted person that have a US govenment office in the history of US

  6. Uh oh, the angry putin-ite nazis are showing up to complain! Don’t mess with their fuhrer! What are you trying to be? A patriot?

    • When the repugs thought it might be too hard to cheat, system was rigged and Trump would not concede. Now that they ‘won’, despite every pollster, popular vote, and exit polls indicating otherwise, everything was fair. Umm, no, sorry deplorables, u were right on November 10th. Something is very wrong in this country.

      • You’re not getting it. The polls were wrong because we were afraid to say we were voting Trump. Liberals were hateful and MSM turned us into monsters (and they still are). We’re still afraid to say we voted for Trump. Watch the news. What kind of democracy is that? I’m not a racist- I voted Obama twice hoping for racial harmony. What a disappointment. It’s worse now than when he took office 8 yrs ago. I WANT the black community to do well. We can’t be happy til we’re all happy. Hillary got 6 million fewer votes than in 2008. She lost 8% black vote & 6% Hispanic vote. Trump only gained 1% white vote over Romney. Whites didn’t vote Trump in- blacks & hispanics did. 58% whites voted for Trump and we’re racists. 93% blacks voted for Obama- are they racist? VoteFraud.org just recently (since the election) said 3 million votes were from illegal Immigrants. Who do you think they voted for? Trumps win was a lot more honorable than Hillary’s DNC undermining of Bernie. He didn’t stand a chance against Hillary’s corrupt machine. She shouldn’t even have been the DNVc candidate. Trump is not a racist. MSM spent 15 months demonizing him. They divided America, not Trump.

        • 100% bullshit. More black voters were kicked off the voting rolls than ever before. Just for having similar names, crosscheck kicked thousands of people off the voting rolls. This was the first election since repealing the voting rights act and we saw what happened, an America hellbent on denying citizens their right to vote. “O your parents named you after Michael Jordan when you were born, you must be the person as the 1 that is from Atlanta, same as the 1 from Los Angeles, and also NYC. Duplicate voter, don’t count those votes.” That’s how crosscheck works and it did that by the 10s of thousands. Doesn’t even have to be the exact same name. People with the same first and last name but different middle names are somehow the same person according to crosscheck. How would someone know if an illegal immigrant voted? No way to possibly track that because they would be committing fraud to do it. They voted in place of a dead person? No that dead person already filled out their absentee ballot and sent it in before they died.

          • The real question is if the exit poll would have accounted for someone turned away via Crosscheck. Were they asked upon exiting? Did they avoid engaging a pollster out of frustration having just been turned away? etc

  7. Yeah, no. I worked as an election commissioner. A LOT of people do not have time for the exit poll stuff. They just want to get back to their days.
    Second, we just moved to a new area and live near one of the libraries that was having early voting. The lines were out the door from the very first day, through the election. A LOT of us didn’t wait till election day. And guess what, I don’t have a number registered in this area, so no one is calling me to see who I voted for. (In Florida, btw!)
    Third, many third party voters (like myself) got tired of the attitude and rudeness when we would be honest so we started feeling out the person we were talking to and then just saying whoever they were choosing to avoid the crap.

  8. Hillary , take the blame for your actions, u can’t blame anybody but yourself. but you won’t read this. you want to blame everyone except yourself for your crooked ways. Its not the F.B.I. or Donald Trump. not the Justice Department. its you Hillary Clinton. your like little kid. your not sorry for anything you did, your sorry you are caught.

  9. if you are not legal enough to have a VALID ID then you are either too lazy to get 1 or an illegal and last but not least to stupid to get 1 then you should not vote.

  10. Media demonized Trump so bad no one wanted to admit they were voting for him. It’s your fault people were afraid to be honest.

  11. Media demonized Trump so bad, we were afraid to say we voted for him. It’s your own fault that people were afraid to be honest. And, black Americans put Trump in office. Look at the statistics. He stole black vote from Hillary. Quit denying.

  12. There is General decline in level of academic elites in UK and USA.Candidates are using emotional appeals to persuade voters and they the voters don’t think through and do research on what they are told that’s why they are experiencing surprising electoral results this is going to cause leadership crises in these countries unless the elites advocate the importance of staying for awhile in school.

  13. Here’s why I think what happened. I think voter suppression may have had an effect in some places, including maybe all of those swing states mentioned above, perhaps enough to have affected the election, but that’s really hard to verify. Probably Republican voters are more likely to lie about their vote than Democratic voters, just as Clinton voters may be more likely to lie than Sanders voters (& by the way exit polls had an even greater discrepancy from recorded results in the Democratic primaries, in favor of Clinton). Also most polls survey likely voters (based on previous voting habit), & in this election many voters who don’t normally vote voted for Trump, where the opposite was true of Clinton voters, but that shouldn’t be a factor in exit polls. But the big problem was that many people who preferred Clinton (as the lesser of 2 evils) weren’t inspired enough to take the trouble to vote. The Democratic establishment should take note of that fact, but they hadn’t yet after overwhelming evidence from massive losses by uninspiring Democratic candidates in previous elections, so there isn’t much reason for hope.

  14. Maybe because Podesta was working with Pollsters ahead of time to over sample Democrats by 20-30% to make the polls look so favorable to her, hoping for a depressed Republican vote…And in the end, the Republican vote didn’t have near the drop off of the Democratic vote did.

    Read the Wikileaks, it clearly spells out the Dems were working with the MSM and the major Pollsters to make it look like she was so far ahead that there was no need to go vote Trump. Do a little research, everyone!

    And HRC dropped 10mm votes from Obama’s 2008 win. The Republicans didn’t drop off nearly as much.

  15. Well, I guess it’s not even within the realm of possibility that they were assuming 2012 minority turnout and thus oversampling Democrats? Why is the most obvious flaw the one you miss? The ONLY reason Clinton lost is because minority turnout was low relative to 2012 – Trump didn’t get any more “white guys” than Romney did. This vast white conspiracy never happened. Blame it on suppression or throwing votes in garbage can, do what you do – but the reality that you refuse to admit is that your base didn’t turn out for Clinton because they were uninspired by her, and thus Democrats were oversampled in the polls.

  16. Sounds about right to me. Calling an election rigged a month out looks like a premeditated attempt to cover your own tracks if you get caught. Unfortunately it painted people into a corner, as can be seen with the comments here. Now you have to accept the results or you’re being undemocratic. Soon enough, Trump supporters will see they’ve been swindled like the rest of us.

  17. I agree with the “Red Shift” phenomenon, but not the explanation. The reason for Red Shift is conservatives are less likely to cooperate with exit polls, believing that it’s no one’s damned business who we voted for, and the unpopularity of Donald Trump in the media probably exacerbated this situation. Any logical, reasoned, and well thought-out conclusion would have to mention this at the top of the reasons, however I’m sure it was conveniently left out due to ideological inconvenience.

    • After having been denigrated in media for months, subject to threat of bodily harm, dismissed as uneducated, “low-information” voters and called “irredeemable, deplorables” by HRC herself….why would a Trump voter bother with a questionnaire. Recent history has shown that Trump support in any “polls” will be discounted. Why should a Trump supporter even speak to pollsters?

    • Right, the pollsters run over, stick a camera in your face and ask if you’re a racist. If you say no, they assume you voted for Hillary. Never mind that she’s pretty racist herself.

  18. Exit Poll, like Telephone Poll. Maybe Trump supporters remained quiet and/or lied to the pollsters, because they were afraid of backlash from Anti-Trump people. You know, like a guy in detroit.

    • Yes people where scared. I sold a lot of Trump Merchandise. But a lot of people where scared to put up yard signs or stickers on there cars fearing someone would break there windows. Its always been the Hillary protectors causing scare in the US. Just like with Obama and the Black Panthers threatening people at the polls. We had 2 rigged elections glad we got someone that care’s about this Country USA USA USA And LOCK HILLARY UP No one in the White House should ever be above the LAW

    • The real Americans have spoken. Did we protect when you voted in a Terrorist for 8 years. hmmmmm. America should run the White House and get the 13 Muslims out of the White House and remover the 33 ISIS Training Camps on US soil. I have one 30 minutes from my house. Bet there’s one by you. Just google ISIS training camps in the US. Its on a real site not a fake news site like this. And i’m sure there’s more we don’t know about but i bet Obama knows where they all are to protect them. A war with ISIS is closer then you think but i rather attack then be blindsided by 9-11. Thanks Obama

  19. Sick of there BS news site. Get a life people Trump won fair and should have won by a lot more. Take away all the fake votes from dead people and ALL the California no ID required to vote votes. I’m mean we could not have another Terrorist run the white house. We don’t need to give warning and put american soldiers in danger by giving them a heads up. People that voted for Hillary are just so blind to the real world.

    • The only thing we all know about this election is that the Russians were working hard to get Trump elected, Trump’s leadership stated they were collaborating with the FBI in regard to an investigation of Hillary, the FBI made a huge announcement that Hillary was under some type of serious investigation a week before the election then quietly said never mind, then Fox news jumps in with the big news that Hillary is going to be indicted a week before the election then quietly says never mind. Democracy only works where all voters know the truth.

  20. You seriously think Legal Students don’t have IDs? Why don’t you just admit that you want as many illegal votes to be cast as possible so something like this won’t happen to you again.

  21. Not recognizing the effect of Alles and his media involvement when assessing the electoral college vote is bizzarre for a country capable of greater accuracy in poll counting, and election counting. The disparity between voting projection on election day (as devined and reported by media, now its own multicorpoational special interest, is so great relative to the actual vote ( not available at the time of election) two weeks later is too great not be trigger an automatic recount when two persons of vastly different compencies (an obvious conclusion) the least favored, and most unpopular person wns such an election, given the tactics used during the election rallies.

    Much like a stramroller, Trump has taken possession of the office, rather or not people imagine he was elected by voting mandate, and virtually assures impeahmemt, and perhaps, worse… Criminal activities for which he has been, and is being given a low bar pass ….to accelerate his Presidency even before installation. Something’s rotten in Denmark? But is America or media asking the right questions? Railroads are tracks like footprints!

  22. Here’s the story. This might be too complicated for a Trump Pet to understand: 1964>>theSouthern Strategy/the Silent Majority>>Nixon The Criminal >> Reagan’s
    Welfare Queen>>Reagan>>Reagan Democrats>>Angry White Working Class Idiots>>Redistricting/Voter Suppression / Fixed Elections >> Psychotic Liar and Thief Trump.

  23. A Major Crime was committed. The Election was RIGGED and an investigation is warrented. Not only will Hillary win the popular vote by nearly 3 million, The Congressional Republicans lost seats in both Houses. Election Day EXIT POLLING showed Hillary winning in four battleground states. Trump and his campaign was shocked that he had won. Even if they don’t give the election to Hillary…She clearly won easily……….ANY Blind person can see that…..It’s time for wikileaks to come clean

  24. More fake polling. Who can believe their polls? They did not produce an honest poll all year, but we are to believe THESE POLLS are legitimate? Why? On what grounds? They will lie,cheat, steal and kill if it helps them to get elected. Can’t wait to be done with these criminals.

  25. Exit polls are inaccurate simply because racist, sexist, homophobes, and religious bigots don’t want their neighbors to know what extreme POSs they are.

  26. One thing not mentioned is the MOST important reason why the exit polls did not reflect the actual ones. The media oversampled Democrats on their polls. That’s it Plain and simple.

  27. donald trump,it doesnot matter that hillary congratulated you,she did that because she is a proper woman,it means nothing.now that your so called victory is becoming fake, why not accept it.look its only a matter of some short time the american people will know who truly won the election.darkness will never overcome light.

  28. If there ever was a case of blatant election fraud and integrity then where was the concern when HiLIARy stole the nomination from Bernie??? Hypocrites.

  29. In your list of what went wrong, why do you not also look at the possibility that the vote was not counted accurately?
    Maybe the exit polls were right and the final count was wrong. Lord knows our systems are highly fallible, especially some of those antiquated voting machines. There is also the possibility of hacking and foul play.

  30. HaHaHa- Too bad Hillary losers-Exit polls and popular votes do not win presidential elections in America. Trump won 306 to Hillary’s 232. Recount all you want but Trump will still be the 45th president of the USA.

  31. When they say it was rigged in favour of Trump, I beg to differ…it was rigged in favour of Hillary…who did the 3,000,000 illegal aliens vote for…a big resounding HILLARY. Who did the dead people vote for? HILLARY. How about the ones that voted 3 & 4 times…their choice and vote went to Hillary…Who was in Control it was the DNC the Democrats. Did Donald Trump stuffed the boxes with Hillary votes then on election night get out the fake ballots and switched them with the real ballots. Hillary didn’t win the popular vote, she couldn’t fill a town hall meeting with more than about 200 supporters, she had to hire seat sitters to fill her seats…Tim KIaine had two large rally’s one drew a crowd of 30 people and the other drew a crowd of 24 people. Donald Trump had thousands, 10, 15, and 20,000 supporters came to every rally he had…Hillary was the one that hired protesters to cause as much trouble as they could at Trump Rally’s…Hillary is bought and paid for by George Soros…..Who in their right mind would put Soros in the Whitehouse…that would be a crime against the people and the nation…how can anyone even consider a Hillary White-house? Any one that has been so heavily bought by Soros should be banned fro public office….What Soros has done down through the years to the election is a crime…he gets away with it It’s time to stop him dead in his tracks.. When you look at the sorry state of the country, you can look straight at George Soros, his goal is to destroy the USA, as he has destroyed how many other countries …this man is a menace to every nation around the world…he need to be stopped , he need to be charged and sent to prison for the rest of his natural life. moveon.org is funded, and more than likely owned by George Soros…moveon.org has sent a petition to the electoral college with well over 400,000 signatures asking them to vote against Trump…George Soros is using blind fools to demand they not support Trump. Soros is a rotten dirty criminal. that needs to be sitting behind bars. It is time to wake up and put him right where he belongs

  32. Why should black votes matter when not even black lives matter? Have you seen, they just murder black people in America. They would of course throw their votes in the bin too.
    #NeverTrump Never ever ever trump.