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Clinton vs. Trump: Election Odds for Nov. 7

(Getty)

(Getty)

Over the past week, the presidential race has tightened, according most recent polls and major election forecasts. While Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has dropped, most polls show she has regained a few points in the last few days leading up to the Nov. 8 election.

Clinton’s lead has fallen to an average of 2.5 points, according the the latest RealClearPolitics average. The drop is significant considering that on Oct. 18, Clinton held an 8-point advantage over Trump. However, Clinton is still the heavy favorite according to most major election forecasts. Although some disagree on how likely it is, all of them still project a Clinton victory and show a challenging path to the White House for Trump.

Clinton’s numbers have taken a hit since the FBI announced it was probing new emails related to her use of a private email server while she was Secretary of State. FBI Director James Comey told Congress on Sunday that the emails won’t change his earlier conclusions about Clinton. Although it’s difficult to determine how much the FBI’s probe affected Clinton’s chances, most polls and election forecasts did reflect a dip for the Democratic nominee in the week after Comey’s first letter. However, the shift could also be attributed to a race that was already tightening. In the past two weeks, Trump has regained some momentum after a rough October which saw his chances plummet according to most election forecasts. Just a few weeks ago, Daily Kos had his chances of winning at a dismal five percent.

Trump has been rebounding from his own set of controversies. Trump’s poll numbers are improving after they dropped sharply following the release of a 2005 recording in which he made lewd comments about women, and a host of sexual assault allegations.

Traditionally Republican states such as Texas and Georgia moved away from the GOP nominee in the wake of the allegations, but have now shifted back in Trump’s favor. The real estate mogul has also regained ground in crucial battleground states including North Carolina and Florida. The candidates are essentially deadlocked in Florida with Clinton currently holding a slim 1-point lead according to the Real Clear Politics average.

While most major election forecasts show Trump’s chances of winning the election have increased, they are still highly favoring a Clinton victory. And although the forecasts are showing a Trump win is unlikely, it is possible, which is in large part due to the number of late undecided voters.

As FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver notes, the public polls show a “tight race in which turnout and late-deciding voters will determine the difference between a clear Clinton win, a narrow Clinton win and Trump finding his way to 270 electoral votes.”

Something that has appeared to work in Clinton’s advantage is early voting. As the Associated Press reported, tens of millions of voters had already cast ballots before the news of the FBI’s email probe broke. Strong early-voting turnout by registered Democrats shows Clinton has the advantage in critical battleground states, as well as signs of strength in some traditionally Republican states.

Here’s a look at the latest forecast trends:


How Forecasts Compare

NYT Upshot: Clinton 84%, Trump 16%

The New York Times’ Upshot elections model indicates Clinton’s lead has dropped from 8.2 percentage points to 6.8 in the past week. However, Trump still has a a challenging path to the White House.

According to their model, Clinton has 693 different ways to win the election, but Trump only has 315 ways to win.

Based on the latest state and national polls, Upshot gives Clinton a solid 84 percent chance of winning the presidency compared to Trump’s 16 percent. To put it in sports terms, Upshot states Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an NFL kicker misses a 38-yard field goal.

Trump’s chances have increased due to his rise in several battleground states. For example, in Florida his chances have increased from 20 to 30 percent over the past two weeks. In Arizona, Trump also saw a jump from 57 to 81 percent in that same span of time.


FiveThirtyEight: Clinton 66.9%, Trump 33% (Polls-Only)

Over the past several weeks, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight forecasts have shown Clinton is highly favored to win on Nov. 8. However, all three of FiveThirtyEight’s models show the race has gradually tightened over the last week.

Their polls-plus forecast shows Trump has a 33.2 percent chance, which is a slight bump from last Tuesday which put him at 28.3. Clinton held an 71.7 percent chance on Tuesday, and now stands at 66.7 percent. The polls-plus forecast takes into account the polls, economy and historical data to make a prediction.

The polls-plus model gives Trump the highest chance of winning among all election forecasts. This model indicates a Trump presidency is twice as likely as Upshot suggests. As Silver points out, historically, there’s been a strong correlation between the number of undecided and third-party voters, and polling volatility, which the polls-plus model takes into account.

Clinton has a slightly higher chance of winning according to the polls-only forecast, which projects she has an 66.9 percent chance of winning. Trump’s chances have increased to 33 percent from a low of 12 percent.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nowcast, which incorporates new polls very quickly, shows the Democratic nominee having a 66.9 percent chance of winning if the election were to be held today.


PredictWise: Clinton 89%, Trump 11%

In addition to polling-based models from FiveThirtyEight, there is the PredictWise model, which uses information from betting markets to make a prediction.

As of Monday, PredictWise is giving Clinton an 89 percent chance of winning. PredictWise has projected a clear Clinton win for months. After the first presidential debate Trump’s odds took a hit, however, his numbers have been on a steady decline since a leaked 2005 recording in which he made lewd comments about women, which was followed by a string of sexual assault allegations.

On Twitter, PredictWise founder David Rothschild explained that he doesn’t expect the news of the FBI clearing Clinton is going to persuade many people in either direction, but will help with voter enthusiasm. Rothschild said the prediction markets were up 2-3 percentage points shortly after the announcement was made on Sunday.


Daily Kos: Clinton 87%, Trump 13%

Daily Kos shows Clinton currently has a 87 percent chance of winning the presidency. In a simulated electoral votes projection, Clinton has 312 compared to Trump’s 226. Their projection only takes into account current polling data. In their model, Clinton did not experience as much of a drop over the past week as some of the other election forecasts.

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21 comments

    • This comment is sexist. And people like this believing in Hillary are so wrong on many levels. First one believing that someone who should be in jail for the crimes she has committed should even be able to run for president. I pray myself.

        • Look deep into the mirror and realize that you are not only the crazy one, but so politically moronic as to this country and it’s sealed doom of freedom if your criminally miscreant girlfriend gets her slime filled paws around the White House. The country you dance around so carefree will be a third world banana republic; although you may be already used to that ( maybe your native habitat) by your comments above

    • All we can do is pray self hating, morons like you and most others are DEAD wrong… if god loves America… Trump will surprise everyone tomorrow!

  1. On Thursday, a young black 21-year-old mother Christian Clark killed her 17-month-old baby boy and attempted to smother to death her 2-year-old daughter, sending text messages and videos in the process. And, you “micky ficky” muh-fu . . .kas believe that you can put our “smooth” brother that we elected president in 2008 and 2012, his wife, or some “anyhoo” stale rapper in our face to force our hand again with voting.

    HELL NO! WE’RE NOT VOTING FOR HILLARY CLINTON!!!

    We have reached our limit with the Democratic Party, CNN, and all those “Ja Rule” Judas slip knots who with just a day until the election STILL CAN’T ACKNOWLEDGE HOW MUCH WE HURT IN BLACK AMERICA.

    It’s that simple.

  2. We can’t let Trump, a man endorsed by the American Nazi Party and the Ku Klux Klan, be president. It’s that simple. Save our country from this evil, criminal, fraud of a man.

    • Being endorsed by anyone does not mean you agree with their agenda. My god why do so many people have their heads up their ass in this election. P.S. Hillary was mentored by a KKK member and spoke at his funeral. Senator Robert Byrd.

  3. why would you believe that someone who has been involved with the government for the past three administrations(as FLOTUS, USSenator for NY, and finally as Secy of State) would have a more adverse effect on this country than someone who has evaded both his duty as a citizen during war and as a taxpayer, who has consistently failed in business ventures to the detriment of many small business owners, and just during this campaign, has been the worst type of example for the children of America. Why?? Take your blinders off. He’s not telling it like it is – he’s pandering to the part of you that hates. Hates what has happened to your life. Remember if you are not part of the solution you are part of the problem. Why would you elect a know-nothing problem to such a position of power and authority? He’s a bully and he is not going to help you he only cares about DonaldTrump.

  4. If Hillary wins then we will be dead, simple as that. She wants to take guns from our military and everywhere else. But at the same time, trump wants all Mexicans go back to Mexico. If you want to be a good president then It shouldn’t matter what race you are, it should matter if your legal or not. I don’t like either one of them #garyjohnson💪

    • She DOES NOT want to take guns away from military.
      The problem with Trump supporters is that they don’t know the truth & they don’t want to know the truth.
      When did Americans get so stupid. We New Yorkers have know the idiocy of Trump for years now. It’s not new to us.
      Wake up & read a paper & learn something. Stop believing the ULTIMATE LIAR….TRUMP!

  5. THE GOP KIDNAPPING OF ELECTORAL DEMOCRACY FOR WHITE SUPREMACY

    GOP establishment politicians are executing political blackmail to intimidate the national electorate. The GOP establishment has publicly announced that they will hold the functioning of the Government of the United States of America hostage, until the national electorate pays the political ransom demand of the GOP, i.e. the national electorate must reflect the majority will of the white electorate or GOP politicians will secede from supporting American Democracy, as their antecedents succeeded from the union to preserve white supremacy politically and economically.

    GOP States Keep Ignoring Court Orders to Restore Voting Rights
    Wisconsin, Ohio, Texas, and North Carolina won’t stop suppressing the vote.
    https://www.thenation.com/article/gop-states-keep-ignoring-court-orders-to-restore-voting-rights/

    Scientific studies (by white scientist) establish that a majority of whites are delusional about the state of the nations racial composition and the negative effect of racial discrimination in America. Approximately six in ten (57%) white Americans and roughly two-thirds (66%) of white working-class Americans agree that discrimination against whites is as big a problem today as discrimination against blacks and other minorities. Despite numerous scientific reports confirming the disproportionate racial impact of voter ID laws and judicial findings of deliberate racial bias of voter ID laws, a white majority concern with the potential of voter fraud “trumps” the reality of proven voter suppression of racial minorities. These outsized delusions, and the fear of the dominance of a non-white electoral preference that trumps the majority white choice trumps all other political factors for a majority of the white electorate. For a white majority a presidential candidate tainted with racism that has hired a white supremacist as a campaign CEO is then, not in and of itself a sufficient disqualification for the office of the presidency.
    http://www.prri.org/research/prri-brookings-immigration-report/

    • Well David Schaefer guess who is in the White House for the next 4 years……………..if you said Trump you are wrong again. Yep the devil is in the White House and she is preferable to Trump. You are gonna be so pissed.