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What Are Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s Odds of Winning Florida?

Trump Clinton, Trump Clinton 2016 election, donald trump hillary clinton

Which presidential candidate will win Florida this year?

As is the case in so many presidential elections, the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton may ultimately come down to Florida. The state is worth 29 Electoral College votes, and without it, Donald Trump will have a very difficult time reaching the 270 needed to win. If he secures every single swing state but loses Florida, he could only make up for that by defeating Hillary Clinton in a state that’s currently leaning blue like Pennsylvania or Virginia. So who’s expected to win Florida as of November 6th?

Although all of the major election forecasts agree that Hillary Clinton is likely to become the next president, not all agree on the outcome in Florida. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s election forecast website, currently predicts that Trump will win the state, giving him a 52.5 percent chance of victory there. This is an enormous shift from a few weeks ago, as on October 22nd, Hillary Clinton had a 73.7 percent chance of taking Florida. FiveThirtyEight’s model takes into account 137 Florida polls, and it forecasts that Trump will win 48.2 percent of Florida’s popular vote, while Hillary Clinton will win 47.8 percent of the vote.

But FiveThirtyEight is the only major election forecast currently predicting a Donald Trump victory in Florida. The New York Times’ The Upshot predicts that Hillary Clinton will win the state, and Donald Trump has just a 30 percent chance of taking Florida. This is, however, up from two weeks ago, when The Upshot was forecasting that Trump had just a 20 percent chance of winning Florida. The fact that this model is so sure about Florida explains why they also forecast that Hillary Clinton has an 84 percent chance of becoming the next president. The Upshot has also taken a look at every possible scenario in which Clinton or Trump could win the election, and if Hillary Clinton wins Florida, she has 469 pathways to victory while Trump only has 39.

Meanwhile, The Huffington Post is incredibly confident in a Hillary Clinton Florida victory. Their model suggests that Clinton has a 93 percent chance of taking Florida. At no point has The Huffington Post’s model ever forecast that Trump has the advantage in the state. This is to be expected, though, from a model that as of November 6th gives Hillary Clinton a 98.4 percent chance of winning the election, a far higher number than any other website.

Over on PredictWise, once again Hillary Clinton is expected to win Florida. David Rothschild’s model suggests that Hillary Clinton has a 73 percent chance of winning the state on Election Day. On PredictWise, Florida is one of three swing states that isn’t firmly in Hillary Clinton’s corner at this time. The other two are New Hampshire, which Trump has a 25 percent chance of winning, and North Carolina, which Trump has a 33 percent chance of winning.

Finally, DailyKos’ forecast is another that places Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning Florida in the 70s, with the model giving her a 74 percent chance of winning Florida. This is down from a week ago, when Clinton had a 90 percent chance of victory in the state. DailyKos’s model did once predict a Trump victory in Florida, though; throughout the entire month of September, Trump was expected to win, with his odds ranging from 53 percent to 64 percent.

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6 comments

    • I think Trump should be in jail for his self-admitted sexual assaults, and for stealing $50,000. to $100,000. security deposits from hundreds of unsuspecting would-be condo buyers, and not to mention the many, many contractors, and business people, and investors who’ve yet to be paid for services rendered to Trump. He may still go to jail for the fraud of Trump University. Just what kind of horrid man would steal the life savings from elderly people wanting to retire? Oh, but emails that have not been proven to have risked a single iota of information, yeah that’s so much worse, right?

  1. What is wrong with people, Hillarys a liar, a crook, possibly a murderer and I believe her to be pure evil! I’ve been a independent swing voter my whole life but would never vote that evil bitch into office! I want what Donald is proposing, better trade deals, jobs back to America, no more inside deals made by the Washington elite! I want a strong border without mexicans and southern Americans just flooding our nation, it’s our nation, our jobs and deserves to be ours without being called racists for wanting it! They come here and don’t even learn English, that’s so un-American and it is a spit in our face, I don’t care if it was Italians coming in just learn the damn language whether u come legally or not! He will I believe not only bring prosperity to America but the dream of what it should be, everyone has a chance, everyone here is free and a chance to live their dream! He’s not like the other politicians who are only out for themselves be it whatever party! Let him shake it up and give them all a scare cause it’s our last chance! I’m tied of watching the disgrace our nation has become and I’m tired of living the way I’m living, life shouldn’t be this hard for those of us who work so hard and have to live paycheck to paycheck or even worse day to day or hand to mouth! Enough already, we have to have this change!

    • Your reality is way different than mine. I kind of like things the way they are now. The only unemployed people I know are really lazy. And my city gets better and more prosperous each year. I’m all for improvement, but that last thing I want to do is burn the house down just because I don’t live in some imaginary promised land.

      • We cannot base your country on LIES! This country was founded on the Constitution! OUR Constitution is slowly being questioned and attempting to be changed.

        1) My family is paying more for Health Insurance than our mortgage and the insurance is substandard. Doctors won’t take it and the coverage is horrible. Obama promised that EVERYONE would have AFFORDABLE Health Insurance. Well, that was a lie! My family is paying $1,500 a month for healthcare. I don’t know about you, but that’s a lot of money to shell out every month. Who can afford the $10,000 deductibles? NOT US! That’s one item that concerns me as an American.

        2) As a Veteran of the USAF, I have never, in my life, seen our country infiltrated the way it has by illegals, some of them criminals with malicious intent toward our people! We are no longer protecting what we have fought for. It is as if We are putting our hands up in the air and opening the flood gates to anyone who wants in. We have never experienced a foreign attack within the domestic borders of this country until 9/11. We have to consider what we’re doing WRONG to not protect our precious country. The security of our country used to be 1st and foremost, now, has been pegged down the ladder of importance to maybe 3 or 4. Our Military is being neglected, our veterans aren’t being cared for properly and we aren’t funding the Military the way it needs to be.

        3) The political corruption, sadly, has always existed, but it has become blatant and without consideration. The lies and deceit we are experiencing is an embarrassment and we, Americans, are the victims.

        4) I cannot think of one thing the DEMOCRATIC party has done for this country during the past 8 years. I respect some of our past Democratic Presidents for their foreign affairs efforts and humanity contributions, but the past 8 years and possibly the next 4 are a complete disaster. There has been nothing exhibited but the concern for preserving Obama’s so-called legacy, NO CLUE WHAT LEGACY HE’S TALKING ABOUT! The only legacy he has is becoming the 1st African-American, Black President. He has created more racial contention than we’ve had ever before by his false accusations and comments. I respect him as our commander-in-chief, but absolutely do not respect his decisions.

        5) Our Amazing Country has been sold out to the rest of the world out of pure greed! We no longer protect our jobs, our people’s security, our military, our education system, our healthcare system! If things are going so great, why are we becoming poorer, being victimized by our own political representatives, losing the quality of life our parents and grand-parents had?

        I want our security, jobs, stable healthcare system, strong education system, political representatives that have our country’s best interest at heart back!!!!! It can be done, but not by the Democrats.

        GOD BLESS THIS AMAZING COUNTRY