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Donald Trump & Hillary Clinton’s Odds of Winning Florida Nov. 7th

Hillary Clinton rally, Hillary Clinton pittsburgh, Hillary Clinton pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Getty)

Hillary Clinton is beginning to increase her odds of winning Florida in many election forecasts, while other models say that Donald Trump is now likely to capture the state.

On November 6th, FiveThirtyEight was forecasting a Donald Trump victory in Florida, giving him a 52.5 percent chance of winning. The state has flipped from red to blue in the past 24 hours; as of November 7th, the FiveThirtyEight model now gives Donald Trump a 48.5 percent chance of winning Florida, with Hillary Clinton having the better odds of 51.6 percent. On their forecast, we can see a clear dip that occurs in the immediate aftermath of the news that the FBI would be looking into new emails relevant to the Hillary Clinton investigation, but now her lead is beginning to rise again.

FiveThirtyEight is also forecasting that Hillary Clinton will win 48.2 percent of the popular vote in Florida, while Donald Trump will receive 48.0 percent of it.

But in The New York Times’ The Upshot, Florida is actually beginning to move in Donald Trump’s direction. On November 6th, the Times’ model gave Hillary Clinton a 70 percent chance of winning the state, but now, this number has gone down to 66 percent. And two weeks ago, before the FBI news was released, Hillary Clinton had an 80 percent chance of winning Florida on The Upshot. The model currently gives Clinton an 84 percent chance of becoming the next president. Clearly, Clinton does not absolutely need Florida to win, while Donald Trump almost certainly can’t reach 270 Electoral College votes without it.

On PredictWise, Hillary Clinton now has better odds of winning Florida than she did yesterday. On November 6th, Clinton was given a 73 percent chance of winning Florida by PredictWise, but now that has gone up two points to 75 percent. Surprisingly, PredictWise is actually giving Clinton better odds of winning Florida today than she had prior to the FBI announcement on October 28th. Hours before that news dropped, Clinton’s odds of winning Florida were at 72 percent. In the aftermath of that bombshell, her odds fell all the way down to 58 percent, but she has now more than recovered from it. Nationally, PredictWise gives Clinton an 89 percent chance of winning the election, up two points since yesterday.

Meanwhile, a dramatic shift has taken place on The Huffington Post’s forecast. On Sunday, this model gave Clinton a 93 percent chance of winning Florida, and the state was placed in the “probable Clinton” column. Twenty-four hours later, Florida has been moved into the “battleground” column, and her odds of winning the state have dropped down to 89 percent. The Huffington Post has also moved North Carolina from “probable Clinton” into “battleground.” One day ago, Clinton’s projected minimum number of Electoral College votes was 317, but now that has dropped down to 273.

Clinton has seen a very slight bump in DailyKos‘ election forecast, though. On November 6th, they gave her a 74 percent chance of winning Florida, but that has now gone up one point to 75 percent. This bump also came as DailyKos released its final election prediction. They expect Hillary Clinton to win 323 Electoral College votes – including that of North Carolina and Florida – and Donald Trump to win 215 votes.

It’s easy to see why all these shifts have taken place, as several key Florida polls were released on Monday that show the race to be much tighter than it was just one day ago. Yesterday, Hillary Clinton was ahead in Real Clear Politics’ Florida polling average by 0.9 percentage points, but today, Trump leads by 0.3 percent. No polls have yet been released that reflect the FBI’s recent announcement that they would still not be recommending charges against Hillary Clinton after reviewing the new set of e-mails, so it remains to be seen if Clinton will be able to recover even more of her lead in the aftermath of that news.

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6 comments

  1. The State of Florida cannot afford Hillary Clinton.
    Her tax plan and open door policy would make Florida a poverty state.
    That’s a shame when you look at how beautiful it once was.
    It can be again.
    Vote Trump.

    George Vreeland Hill

  2. Aren’t we all sick of the political BS? We need the businessman to pull us out of our economical nightmare! We need a strong leader who will defend America. Trump trumps Clinton.

  3. THE GOP KIDNAPPING OF ELECTORAL DEMOCRACY FOR WHITE SUPREMACY

    GOP establishment politicians are executing political blackmail to intimidate the national electorate. The GOP establishment has publicly announced that they will hold the functioning of the Government of the United States of America hostage, until the national electorate pays the political ransom demand of the GOP, i.e. the national electorate must reflect the majority will of the white electorate or GOP politicians will secede from supporting American Democracy, as their antecedents succeeded from the union to preserve white supremacy politically and economically.

    GOP States Keep Ignoring Court Orders to Restore Voting Rights
    Wisconsin, Ohio, Texas, and North Carolina won’t stop suppressing the vote.
    https://www.thenation.com/article/gop-states-keep-ignoring-court-orders-to-restore-voting-rights/

    Scientific studies (by white scientist) establish that a majority of whites are delusional about the state of the nations racial composition and the negative effect of racial discrimination in America. Approximately six in ten (57%) white Americans and roughly two-thirds (66%) of white working-class Americans agree that discrimination against whites is as big a problem today as discrimination against blacks and other minorities. Despite numerous scientific reports confirming the disproportionate racial impact of voter ID laws and judicial findings of deliberate racial bias of voter ID laws, a white majority concern with the potential of voter fraud “trumps” the reality of proven voter suppression of racial minorities. These outsized delusions, and the fear of the dominance of a non-white electoral preference that trumps the majority white choice trumps all other political factors for a majority of the white electorate. For a white majority a presidential candidate tainted with racism that has hired a white supremacist as a campaign CEO is then, not in and of itself a sufficient disqualification for the office of the presidency.
    http://www.prri.org/research/prri-brookings-immigration-report/

  4. people need quit whinning cause trump won. clintons had been audoted and lied about rhings and yes trimp said things that affened some women there are women out there that has done the same thing to men but lot of women thinks that ok well cant have it one way whats bad for one should be bad for the other.look at what her husband did and more u wanted him out inpeached then turned around and relected him so who is confused. she lied about the emails what else would she lie about or do if sje was President try to sweep it under the rug. how can we take care of other countries when our own government cant take care of its own house and country and hillary plans would continue to set us back she was just in it for herself and Obama but we got to put god first back into this country and quit supporting other countries and get our self straight