Democratic Polls for Feb. 18: State of the Race in Nevada & South Carolina

Hillary Clinton, here at a campaign event in Nevada, leads in the newest poll there, as well as in South Carolina and nationally. (Getty)

After a big win for Bernie Sanders in the New Hampshire primary, the focus turns to the next two contests: the Nevada Democratic caucus on February 20 and the South Carolina primary on February 23. Hillary Clinton leads the most recent polls in South Carolina and holds the national lead, and a new Nevada poll shows Clinton edging ahead in the state. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts and PredictWise betting markets, meanwhile, still favor Hillary across the board, though a lack of recent data could be giving an outdated picture there, too.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Nevada: New Poll Shows Clinton Ahead

Sanders and Clinton at the most recent debate. Clinton is a slight favorite according to recent Nevada polls. (Getty)

The Polls

New polls from Gravis and CNN/ORC show Clinton ahead of Sanders by a slight margin:

These contradict a TargetPoint poll from earlier this week:

Before that, the most recent previous poll was conducted in late December:

The Forecasts

Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight released their fist “polls-plus” forecast for Nevada. The forecast takes into account factors like endorsements, previous state results, and national polling trends to give context to the state polls, and declares the Nevada race a dead heat:

The Betting Markets

Political betting markets report the amount and value of bets placed on a political candidate to win a particular race. Unlike polls, they can react to day-to-day events but are more removed from the process due to lack of actual contact with voters. Betting aggregator PredictWise compiles the action in several betting markets to provide probabilities for the race:

South Carolina: Hillary Runs Away with Latest Polls

Bernie Sanders, here campaigning in South Carolina, has struggled to pick up support in the state even after a decisive New Hampshire win.

The Polls

This week’s polls for South Carolina show Hillary well in the lead, even after disappointing results in the first two states:

RealClearPolitics updated its averages with these new polls, eliminating the out-of-date 2015 surveys:

While these averages aren’t far from the results before other states voted (Sanders actually gains a point on the whole), that’s not great news for a candidate who has a lot of ground to make up and has likely already seen his biggest bump from two very favorable states

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast factors in elements like previous primary results, endorsements, and national polling trends to add context to the polling numbers. Their polls-plus forecast for South Carolina is extremely favorable to Clinton:

Their polls-only forecast weighs recent polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, and shows a slightly more hopeful picture for Sanders:

The Betting Markets

The betting markets for South Carolina, based on day-to-day reactions, come down heavily in favor of Clinton after the new polls:

The Rest of the Country

The Polls

There are two national polls from this week, and while national polls aren’t always predictive, they do provide a snapshot of campaign momentum. Clinton, whose new ad is above, leads in both, but by wildly swinging margins:

RealClearPolitics compiled these polls into an average:

The Betting Markets

Hillary Clinton is still a strong favorite to win the Democratic nomination despite close finishes in the first two primary races:

News of the Day

• Gerald Friedman, the economist who famously gave an optimistic review of Sanders’s economic plan, endorsed Hillary on Thursday.

Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Florida: March 9, Univision

Primary Schedule

Nevada: February 20

South Carolina: February 27

Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

Maine: March 6

Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

Wisconsin: April 5

Wyoming: April 9

New York: April 19

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

West Virginia: May 10

Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

Washington, D.C.: June 14

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