Nevada
Sanders and Clinton debate at Thursday’s MSNBC event. (Getty)
The most recent Nevada poll was released by Gravis on December 28. In that poll, Clinton led Sanders by 23 points, 50 to 27. While that’s obviously too far out to measure everything accurately, it is interesting to note that the most recent previous poll, an October release from CNN/ORC, showed more competitive numbers (a 16-point lead at 50-34), possibly hinting that Bernie’s surge in Iowa and New Hampshire did not signal a rise in the states beyond.
The two polls combine for a RealClearPolitics average showing a Clinton lead of 19.5 at 50 percent, with Bernie Sanders at 30.5 percent.
Nevada Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have enough recent polling for a forecast, but tracks recent polling to show a 50.4 percent chance for Clinton, with Sanders at 28.5 percent.
The Rest of the Country
Representative Elijah Cummings, D-Maryland, disclosed that former Republican Secretaries of State committed similar potential violations as are being investigated in the ongoing Clinton email scandal. (Getty)
A new national poll from Quinnipiac shows just a 2-point lead for Clinton, 44 percent to 42 percent. This poll is a significant outlier, as all other recent polls show double-digit leads for Clinton, but it may capture a snapshot of the Sanders momentum after a close loss in Iowa and headed toward what looks like a big New Hampshire win. The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 13.3 points at 50.5 percent, with Sanders taking 37.2 percent.
National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 50.5%
- Bernie Sanders: 37.2%
The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 82 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 18.
News of the Day
Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
New Hampshire: February 4, MSNBC
Wisconsin: February 11, PBS
Florida: March 9, Univision
Primary Schedule
New Hampshire: February 9
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14
