Nevada
Hillary Clinton, here campaigning in New Hampshire, has the edge in Nevada according to the most recent polls. (Getty)
The most recent Nevada poll was released by Gravis on December 28. In that poll, Clinton led Sanders by 23 points, 50 to 27. While that’s obviously too far out to measure everything accurately, it is interesting to note that the most recent previous poll, an October release from CNN/ORC, showed more competitive numbers (a 16-point lead at 50-34), possibly hinting that Bernie’s surge in Iowa and New Hampshire did not signal a rise in the states beyond.
The two polls combine for a RealClearPolitics average showing a Clinton lead of 19.5 at 50 percent, with Bernie Sanders at 30.5 percent.
Nevada Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have enough recent polling for a forecast, but tracks recent polling to show a 50.4 percent chance for Clinton, with Sanders at 28.5 percent.
The Rest of the Country
Rachel Maddow, here hosting a town hall event in Flint, Michigan, will moderate Thursday’s Democratic debate. (Getty)
A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily shows a 12-point lead for Clinton. This is in keeping with most national polls since the campaign began, and is not particularly predictive information: national polls include voters that won’t cast a ballot or head to the caucus for as many as five months, and a lot can change between now and then.
The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 14.4 points at 51.6 percent, with Sanders taking 37.2 and O’Malley taking 2.2.
National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 51.6%
- Bernie Sanders: 37.2%
- Martin O’Malley: 2.2%
The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 84 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 15 percent and Martin O’Malley at 1 percent.
News of the Day
Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
New Hampshire: February 4, MSNBC
Wisconsin: February 11, PBS
Florida: March 9, Univision
Primary Schedule
New Hampshire: February 9
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14
