Donald Trump at his post-New Hampshire primary, where he accepted the victory that put him ahead in the delegate count. (Getty)
After Donald Trump took New Hampshire in convincing fashion on Tuesday, the Republican race turns to South Carolina’s “First in the South” primary February 20. South Carolina polls favor Trump, according to RealClearPolitics, as do those in the next state, Nevada. The prediction markets have also swung in Trump’s favor.
Delegate Count
| Donald Trump | 17 |
| Ted Cruz | 11 |
| Marco Rubio | 10 |
| John Kasich | 5 |
| Jeb Bush | 4 |
| Ben Carson | 3 |
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
South Carolina: Trump Ahead, but No New Information
John Kasich surprised many with his New Hampshire finish, but there’s no new polling from the next two states to measure its significance. (Getty)
The Polls
Two new polls from South Carolina shows a convincing lead for Trump, with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him.
| Augusta Chronicle | Released February 12 |
| Donald Trump | 36% |
| Ted Cruz | 20% |
| Marco Rubio | 15% |
| Jeb Bush | 11% |
| SC House GOP Caucus | Released February 12 |
| Donald Trump | 35% |
| Ted Cruz | 16% |
| Marco Rubio | 13% |
| Jeb Bush | 13% |
The figures aren’t much different from polls earlier in the cycle:
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist | Released January 24 |
| Donald Trump | 36% |
| Ted Cruz | 20% |
| Marco Rubio | 14% |
| Jeb Bush | 9% |
RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:
| RealClearPolitics Averages | |
| Donald Trump | 35.7% |
| Ted Cruz | 18.7% |
| Marco Rubio | 14% |
| Jeb Bush | 11% |
After a strong finish in Iowa and a big New Hampshire win, it’s clear that Trump is maintaining momentum.
The Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:
| Donald Trump | 64% |
| Marco Rubio | 15% |
| Ted Cruz | 11% |
Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:
| Donald Trump | 77% |
| Ted Cruz | 11% |
The Betting Markets
Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:
| Donald Trump | 78% |
| Ted Cruz | 14% |
Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.