GOP Polls for Feb. 19: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage

Marco Rubio, here in North Carolina, is having trouble breaking through following a disappointing New Hampshire finish. (Getty)

The Polls

A new poll in Nevada has Trump well ahead, with Rubio taking the runner-up spot from Cruz:

The most recent previous poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. However, it shows Trump has actually increased his lead:

RealClearPolitics averaged these two polls:

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with Rubio competitive:

The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer

Pope Francis, here in Mexico, made comments Thursday taken to be a jab at Trump, with Trump responding in CNN’s town hall. (Getty)

The Polls

Recent national polls show that Trump’s national lead may not be as secure as his state leads seem, but the extent of which, and who benefits, is a heavily mixed message:

RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:

The Betting Markets

The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:

News of the Day

• Rubio threatened to sue the Cruz campaign over a campaign flyer with a doctored photo purportedly showing a handshake between Rubio and President Obama.
• Donald Trump stated that Pope Francis, who recently made statements vaguely critical of Trump, has “a very big wall” of his own at the Vatican, but claimed to respect the office and Francis specifically.

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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Democratic Polls for Feb. 18: State of the Race in Nevada & South Carolina