GOP Polls for Feb. 3: State of the Race in New Hampshire & South Carolina

Ted Cruz celebrates his victory in the Iowa caucus. (Getty)

Monday night’s Iowa caucus is behind us, and the focus turns to January 9’s New Hampshire primary. While Ted Cruz managed to pull a last-second upset of frontrunner Donald Trump in Iowa, he polled fairly close to Trump in that state, something that’s not true of New Hampshire. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump leads there by an average of more than 22 points, while Cruz’s rivals, including another surprising Iowa finisher in Marco Rubio, are within striking distance of his second-place spot. New polls for the remaining states haven’t yet measured reaction to Monday’s events, but PredictWiseprediction markets and FiveThirtyEight’s porjections have shown movement in favor of Trump’s rivals, especially for Rubio.

Delegate Count (1,237 Needed)

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

New Hampshire

Donald Trump, here at his Iowa concession speech, has much better polling and betting forecasts in New Hampshire. (Getty)

A tracking poll from UMass-Lowell/7News shows Trump with a 24-point lead over Cruz, 38 to 14 percent, with Rubio third at 12. Rubio was only at 8 prior to the Iowa caucus in this poll, and its daily updates are definitely capturing some momentum for him following his surprising show in Iowa. According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has an 21.1-point lead with 33.4 percent of the vote, followed by Cruz at 12.2, Rubio at 10.8, and Kasich at 10.4.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, which considers multiple factors beyond the polls, gives Trump a 58 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 15 percent and Cruz at 14. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 73 percent, with no one else in double digits.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump holds fairly steady at 63 percent, with Marco Rubio rising to 21.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

South Carolina

The most recent polls for South Carolina, from CBS News/YouGov and NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal show a Trump advantage of 19 and 16 points, respectively. CBS News/YouGov shows Trump taking 36 percent to Cruz’s 20 percent, with Rubio at 14; NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal gives Trump a full 40 percent, with Cruz at 21 and Rubio 13. Neither of these, though, were taken after the Iowa caucus, so there’s crucial context missing from these numbers.

The RealClearPolitics averages for South Carolina show a 16.3-point lead for Trump at 36, with 19.7 for Cruz, 12.7 for Rubio, and 10 for Jeb Bush.

South Carolina Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projection for South Carolina puts Trump at a 57 percent favorite to win the nomination, with Cruz at 19 and Rubio at 16. Their polls-only projection puts Trump at 70 percent, with 17 for Cruz.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise have reacted significantly to the caucus, with Trump falling from 70 percent last month to a still-best 42 percent, Ted Cruz rising to 32, and Marco Rubio rising to 23.

The Rest of the Country

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott endorsed Marco Rubio Monday. (Getty)

A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily gives Trump a 10-point lead over Ted Cruz at 31-21 percent, with Rubio at 10. It’s the smallest Trump lead of any poll in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump with a 16.2-point lead at 35.8 percent, with Cruz taking 19.6 percent and Rubio at 10.2.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

The PredictWise betting aggregation have returned Marco Rubio to favorite status, rising from 33 percent to an odds-on 57 percent, with former odds-on favorite Donald Trump falling to 24 and Ted Cruz at 14.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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