Nevada Caucus GOP Polls 2016: Trump Predicted to Win

Donald Trump polls, Donald Trump Nevada, Nevada polls

Donald Trump, here campaigning in Las Vegas, is well ahead in Nevada polls ahead of the February 23 caucus. (Getty)

With 30 delegates up for grabs, the Nevada caucus appears to be Donald Trump‘s to lose. Trump has a substantial lead in the polling averages for the state, as collected by RealClearPolitics, as well as the FiveThirtyEight projections and PredictWise betting forecasts. The only question now is whether the polling results will hold out, as they did in New Hampshire and South Carolina but failed to predict an upset victory for Ted Cruz in Iowa.

Here’s a look at the state of the race in Nevada:

The Polls

Recent polls in Nevada have Trump well ahead, with Rubio battling it out with Cruz for the runner-up spot:

CNN/ORC Released February 17
Donald Trump 45%
Ted Cruz 19%
Marco Rubio 17%


 Gravis Released February 17
 Donald Trump 39%
Ted Cruz 23%
 Marco Rubio 19%

It’s important to note two things with these polls: they’re too early to take into account the results from South Carolina, and Nevada is a hard state to poll, meaning that the picture may not be exactly perfect.

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:

Donald Trump 64%
Marco Rubio 25%
Ted Cruz 10%


The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with Rubio leading the rest of the pack but far behind:

Donald Trump 88%
Marco Rubio 7%