With 30 delegates up for grabs, the Nevada caucus appears to be Donald Trump‘s to lose. Trump has a substantial lead in the polling averages for the state, as collected by RealClearPolitics, as well as the FiveThirtyEight projections and PredictWise betting forecasts. The only question now is whether the polling results will hold out, as they did in New Hampshire and South Carolina but failed to predict an upset victory for Ted Cruz in Iowa.
Here’s a look at the state of the race in Nevada:
Recent polls in Nevada have Trump well ahead, with Rubio battling it out with Cruz for the runner-up spot:
|CNN/ORC||Released February 17|
|Gravis||Released February 17|
It’s important to note two things with these polls: they’re too early to take into account the results from South Carolina, and Nevada is a hard state to poll, meaning that the picture may not be exactly perfect.
FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:
The Betting Markets
Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with Rubio leading the rest of the pack but far behind: