Donald Trump campaigns in New Hampshire, where he leads in state polling. (Getty)
Tuesday marks the New Hampshire primary, the next stop of the race to the Republican nomination. Donald Trump is the double-digit polling leader in the state, and is most experts’ pick to take home the lion’s share of New Hampshire delegates. However, Senator Marco Rubio has surged forward in the latest polls, and Iowa winner While Ted Cruz managed to pull a last-second upset of Trump in the opening caucus, though Trump’s polling lead was not quite as large there. At stake are 23 delegates to the Republican National Convention, enough to establish a big lead in the current race:
Delegate Count (1,237 Needed)
Read our summary of the election predictors so far, then vote in our poll at the bottom of the page.
The Polls
While Donald Trump leads all recent polls by double digits, the polling case for Rubio as runner-up is substantially less clear. Gravis shows him slipping to third place, with Trump holding an 11-point, 28-17 lead over John Kasich. Rubio takes 15 percent in the poll, with Jeb Bush at 14 and Cruz at 10. CNN/WMUR puts him second by 14 points, 31-17, with Cruz at 14 and Kasich at 10. CNN/WMUR again has him as the runner-up, 17 to Trump’s 30, but Emerson College puts him as low as fifth, With 12 percent to Trump’s 31, with Bush and Kasich between them at 16 and 13, respectively, and Cruz just behind at 12. The tracking poll from UMass-Lowell/7News, shows that Rubio has slid into a tie for runner-up status with Ted Cruz, 13 apiece to Trump’s 34, with Bush and Kasich tied for fourth at 10. Perhaps some good news for Rubio: he’s not polling considerably better or worse as the polls’ periods include more days following his his poorly received debate performance, meaning that he might have escaped the gaffe with little impact.
According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 16.3-point lead with 30.7 percent of the vote, followed by Rubio at 14.4, Kasich at 13, Cruz at 12.4 and Bush at 11.3.
The Forecasters
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, which considers multiple factors beyond the polls, gives Trump a 70 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio tied with Kasich at 10 percent and everyone else in single digits. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 76 percent, with no one else taking double digits.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
The Betting Markets
In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises to 83 percent, making him alone in double digits. Betting markets have been highly volatile this election season, though, and Trump was above a 50 percent favorite in Iowa in a contest where he eventually tied for second.
