South Carolina Primary 2016: Latest Republican Polls

South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (left) applauds as Marco Rubio speaks at a rally February 18 in Greenville, South Carolina. (Getty)

Donald Trump remains the favorite in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, but things are starting to get interesting in the final hours before voters head to the polls. While Trump’s lead in the RealClear politics average of recent polls remains in double digits, a handful of polls released over the past two days have reported serious momentum for Marco Rubio, with one poll putting the Florida senator within 3 percentage points of Trump for first place. Ted Cruz, who won the Iowa caucus before finishing third in New Hampshire, was also within 5 points of Trump in a poll released Thursday.

The poll showing the biggest Rubio surge came from OpinionSavvy, which had Trump at 27 percent and Rubio trailing closely behind at 24 percent. That’s a net gain of 18 percentage points in the last eight days for Rubio, who trailed Trump by 21 points in an OpinionSavvy poll released February 11, two days after Rubio’s fifth-place finish in the New Hampshire primary. The surge comes after Rubio received the endorsement of popular GOP governor Nikki Haley, who has been campaigning with Rubio throughout the state.

Predictably, the poll generated plenty of buzz among conservative commentators rooting for Trump’s demise. Take this tweet, for instance, from Commentary Magazine Editor John Podhoretz.

The OpinionSavvy poll and others showing similar gains for Rubio have made a pretty substantial pre-election impact on the betting markets as well. Rubio’s chances at winning the nomination rose from 30 percent to 37 percent over the past day, according to Predictwise.com, while Trump’s dropped from 51 percent to 47 percent.

The betting markets are less bullish on Cruz nationally, giving him just an 11 percent chance to win. But they actually give him a slightly better shot to win South Carolina than Rubio: Cruz is at 9 percent, while Rubio is at 7 percent, to win the Palmetto State.

Here’s a look at the South Carolina polling landscape as GOP voters head to the polls:

RealClear Politics Polling Average

The RealClear Politics polling average consists of 10 polls conducted from February 14 to February 19.

OpinionSavvy Poll

The latest poll from OpinionSavvy was conducted February 18 and 19. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

South Carolina House GOP Caucus Poll

The latest GOP House caucus poll was conducted February 18. It has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

American Research Group (ARG) Poll

The latest ARG poll was conducted February 17 and 18. It has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

Emerson College Poll

The latest Emerson College poll was conducted February 16-18. It has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.

Harper Poll

The latest Harper poll was conducted February 16-17. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

NBC News & Wall Street Journal Poll

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted by Marist College, was conducted February 15-17. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

Fox News Poll

The latest Fox News poll was conducted February 15-17. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Clemson Poll

The latest Clemson University poll was conducted February 14-18. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Monmouth University Poll

The latest Monmouth poll was conducted February 14-16. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Carolina survey on Tuesday morning. The poll was conducted February 14 and 15 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. In addition to asking respondents for whom they plan to vote in Saturday’s primary, PPP asked respondents who they would pick in hypothetical matchups if there were fewer choices. You can check out the full poll for all of the data. But a sampling of the key findings is below.

6-Way Race (Slate of Candidates in the Race Now)

4 Way Race Between Trump, Cruz, Rubio & Bush

3-Way Race Between Trump, Rubio & Cruz

2-Way Race Between Trump & Rubio

2-Way Race Between Trump & Cruz

2-Way Race Between Trump & Bush

2-Way Race Between Rubio & Cruz

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