Connecticut Republican Polls 2016: Trump Leads Growing on Primary Day

Donald Trump polls, Connecticut polls, Connecticut GOP polls

Donald Trump, here at a campaign event in Connecticut, is well ahead in the state’s polls. (Getty)

With one day to go until votes are cast, Donald Trump continues to lead the pack in Connecticut. The Republican frontrunner over Ohio governor John Kasich and Ted Cruz, Trump is the only candidate of the three who can secure a first-ballot nomination at the GOP convention. To do so, however, he’ll need a large share of the remaining delegates, including the 28 up for grabs in Connecticut.

Connecticut’s primary rules might be working against Cruz and in Trump’s favor due to various “thresholds” the two candidates will and won’t clear if the polls hold out. A candidate needs at least 20 percent of the vote to qualify for any of the 13 statewide delegates; meanwhile, the statewide winner can take all 13 of those delegates with a 50% share of the statewide popular vote. Connecticut’s polling trends suggest that Cruz will not qualify for statewide delegates, and that Trump’s vote share will deny Kasich statewide delegates he would have otherwise earned.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

The Polls: Trump Out in Front

Polling aggregator RealClearPolitics shows a convincing lead for Trump just one day ahead of the primary:

Poll Donald Trump John Kasich Ted Cruz
Public Policy Polling 59 25 13
Gravis 54 27 9
Quinnipiac 48 28 19
RealClearPolitics Average 45.8 26.4 23

While not quite the size of his home-state romp in New York, the polling suggests that Trump will enjoy in neighboring Connecticut the type of huge win that both gets him closer to the 1,237 delegates he needs to bypass the establishment at the convention and generate momentum heading into the critical final primaries.

The Forecasts: Trump Ahead

FiveThirtyEight, which uses a polls-plus forecast utilizing factors like endorsements and previous results to give context to the polls, gives Trump an almost-certain 99 percent chance of winning the Connecticut Republican primary:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast Chance of Winning
Donald Trump >99%
Ted Cruz <1%

Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use external factors but weights the polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, isn’t any friendlier to the other candidates:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast Chance of Winning
Donald Trump >99%
John Kasich <1%

The Betting Markets: Trump a Prohibitive Favorite

Betting markets measure the amount that gamblers place on a particular candidate to win a primary, nomination, or election. While they’re able to move much faster than polls due to a looser methodology, it’s important to note that they’re only well-informed opinions (at best), not a rigorous measure. PredictWise, which aggregates the results of several betting markets, calls Trump an overwhelming favorite to take the Connecticut primary:

PredictWise Betting Markets Chance of Winning
Donald Trump 98%
John Kasich 1%
Ted Cruz 0%