With one day to go until votes are cast, Donald Trump continues to lead the pack in Connecticut. The Republican frontrunner over Ohio governor John Kasich and Ted Cruz, Trump is the only candidate of the three who can secure a first-ballot nomination at the GOP convention. To do so, however, he’ll need a large share of the remaining delegates, including the 28 up for grabs in Connecticut.
Connecticut’s primary rules might be working against Cruz and in Trump’s favor due to various “thresholds” the two candidates will and won’t clear if the polls hold out. A candidate needs at least 20 percent of the vote to qualify for any of the 13 statewide delegates; meanwhile, the statewide winner can take all 13 of those delegates with a 50% share of the statewide popular vote. Connecticut’s polling trends suggest that Cruz will not qualify for statewide delegates, and that Trump’s vote share will deny Kasich statewide delegates he would have otherwise earned.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
The Polls: Trump Out in Front
Polling aggregator RealClearPolitics shows a convincing lead for Trump just one day ahead of the primary:
|Poll||Donald Trump||John Kasich||Ted Cruz|
|Public Policy Polling||59||25||13|
While not quite the size of his home-state romp in New York, the polling suggests that Trump will enjoy in neighboring Connecticut the type of huge win that both gets him closer to the 1,237 delegates he needs to bypass the establishment at the convention and generate momentum heading into the critical final primaries.
The Forecasts: Trump Ahead
FiveThirtyEight, which uses a polls-plus forecast utilizing factors like endorsements and previous results to give context to the polls, gives Trump an almost-certain 99 percent chance of winning the Connecticut Republican primary:
|FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast||Chance of Winning|
Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use external factors but weights the polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, isn’t any friendlier to the other candidates:
|FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast||Chance of Winning|
The Betting Markets: Trump a Prohibitive Favorite
Betting markets measure the amount that gamblers place on a particular candidate to win a primary, nomination, or election. While they’re able to move much faster than polls due to a looser methodology, it’s important to note that they’re only well-informed opinions (at best), not a rigorous measure. PredictWise, which aggregates the results of several betting markets, calls Trump an overwhelming favorite to take the Connecticut primary:
|PredictWise Betting Markets||Chance of Winning|