Trump vs Clinton 2016: Hillary leads the Polls

general election polls, Donald Trump polls, Hillary Clinton polls

Hillary Clinton would be a general election favorite. (Getty)

With Ted Cruz announcing the suspension of his campaign after a win for Donald Trump in Indiana, the latter has all but locked up the Republican nomination for president. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton lost to Bernie Sanders in the states Democratic primary but is still on track to be the nominee. With these two facts in mind, it’s time to start thinking about the general election.

Clinton is ahead in the latest polls comma amid betting Market speculation that the Democrats we’ll take the White House regardless of the nominees. However, most polls were taken before the likely end of the Republican race comma and the general election season may end up looking nothing like the polls.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:


Matchup Polls: Clinton Well Ahead

Despite Trump’s assertion that Clinton would be “easy to beat,” he’s significantly behind in most general election match-up polls against hers, though not as far back as in races against Sanders.

RealClearPolitics: Clinton vs. Trump Clinton Trump
Rasmussen 39 41
IBD/TIPP 47 40
USA Today/Suffolk 50 39
GWU/Battleground 46 43
Average 46.7 40.5

While Trump is still behind in most polls, he’s made up significant ground after a losing streak dating back to February, in which most polls had him losing by double digits.


Favorability: Both Low, Trump Lower

Clinton and Trump combine for the most-hated frontrunner duo in favorability polling history. This is certainly bad news for Clinton, but there’s a ray of hope: she’s doing far better than Trump, who is the least-liked candidate since polls began tracking the issue.

Hillary Clinton Favorability Ratings Unfavorable Favorable Margin
USA Today/Suffolk 55 40 -15
PRRI/The Atlantic 54 37 -17
The Economist/YouGov 54 42 -12
RealClearPolitics Average 38.4 54.9 -16.5

Donald Trump Favorability Ratings Unfavorable Favorable Margin
Economist/YouGov 63 33 -30
USA Today/Suffolk 61 28 -33
GWU/Battleground 65 32 -33
RealClearPolitics Average 65.4 28.4 -37


Democrats Favored in the Betting Markets

The betting markets, as aggregated by PredictWise, don’t track hypothetical matchups, and likely won’t handle general election candidates by name until they’re named as such at the party conventions. In party terms, however, the markets like the Democrats’ chances, giving the party a 70 percent chance to take the White House against just 30 for the Republicans.