President Donald Trump is six months into his first year in the Oval Office and approval ratings continue to show that a majority of Americans do not approve of his performance. While Trump’s numbers have rebounded a bit from the mid-June Gallup poll that showed 60 percent of Americas disapproving of Trump, the numbers still do not look good.
The most recent Gallup poll was conducted from June 29 to July 1, with 1,5000 adults responding. In the poll, 57 percent said they disapproved of Trump’s job, while 37 percent approve.
During that time period, the Senate failed to vote on its health care law before the July 4 recess. Meanwhile, Trump mounted an attack on Morning Joe hosts Mika Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough, with the hosts claiming the White House threatened to let a National Enquirer story be published unless they apologized for their criticisms of the president. The drama continued on July 1, when Trump called Brzezinski “dumb as a rock” on Twitter.
Here’s a look at the latest Trump approval ratings.
Latest Trump Approval Polls
|Date||Polling Firm||Approval Rating||Disapproval Rating|
|June 28-July 2||Rasmussen||44||56|
|June 29-July 1||Gallup||37||57|
As these most recent polls show, the majority of poll respondents still do not approve of Trump’s presidency. The results are notably similar to polls from May, when many showed Trump’s approval rating just below 40 percent.
Rasmussen, which often leans Republican, is back at showing a 44 percent approval rating for Trump. On June 18, Trump tweeted the results of Rasmussen’s June 16 poll, which showed Trump at a 50 percent total approval rating. However, that same poll also showed that 50 percent still disapproved of his performance and only 31 percent strongly approved. It was the first time since April 18 that Rasmussen showed Trump with a 50 percent approval rating.
The most recent polls have been conducted in an atmosphere where Trump’s tweets and attacks on the media are drowning out his legislative goals. Trump still hasn’t been able to sign a repeal of the Affordable Care Act, now that the Senate’s version of the bill is in trouble. On June 20, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that 22 million people will be left without health insurance by 2026 if the bill is signed into law as is. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell hoped to have a vote last week, but enough Republicans balked at the bill to make it clear that it might not pass as first written.
In the latest SurveyMonkey poll, 30 percent of the 10,945 adults polled said health care was the most important issue to them. Jobs and the economy came in a close second with 25 percent.
The latest YouGov poll also highlighted how health care reform is seen as a major concern among voters. Forty-five percent said they were “very concerned,” while 34 percent said they were “somewhat concerned.” Even 84 percent of Trump voters polled said they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about health care reform.
However, that poll still showed strong support for Trump among the people who voted for him. Eighty-nine percent of those who voted for him told YouGove they “strongly” or “somewhat” approved of his performance.
Long Term Trend
It’s beginning to look like Trump has reached a consistent level in approval rating polls. Since the June 13 Gallup poll that showed a record 60 percent disapproval rating, that number has dipped.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll average shows Trump’s average approval rating at 39.4 percent, with a 54.4 percent average disapproval rating. The poll average at RealClearPolitics, which includes a number of different polls, shows a 40 percent average approval rating and a 54.6 percent average disapproval rating.
Trump is still outpacing his recent predecessors when it comes to how approval ratings. President George W. Bush, the previous Republican president, was still hovering in the 50-60 percent range in the Gallup poll at this point in his presidency. It wasn’t until mid-2004 that Bush had a sub-50 percent approval rating in the Gallup poll.
In July 2009, President Barack Obama’s Gallup poll numbers showed him at a 60 percent approval rating. Obama’s disapproval rating never reached 60 percent in the Gallup poll during his administration.
David Rothschild of PredictWise takes data from betting markets and converts them into percentages to show the odds of Trump leaving office before his first four-year term ends. The odds of him staying in office until 2020 or beyond are now at 54 percent, much higher than the odds of him leaving early.
The odds of him leaving office before the end of this year stands at just 12 percent, while the odds of him leaving next year are at 20 percent. The odds of him leaving in 2019 are 15 percent.
Rothschild’s site did show that the odds of Hillary Clinton becoming president were 89 percent, so his data should be taken with a grain of salt.
Other Notable Polls
On June 26, Pew Research Center released a poll showing the impact Trump has had on how the international community views the U.S. In the poll of citizens from 37 countries, only 22 percent had confidence in Trump to do the best thing in international affairs. During the last years of Obama’s presidency, the median was 64 percent.
The poll found that there are only two countries where respondents have more confidence in Trump than they had in Obama. In Israel, 56 percent have confidence in Trump, while 49 percent had confidence in Obama. In Russia, 53 percent have confidence in Trump, compared to just 11 percent in Obama. Russia is also the only Pew-polled country where favorability of the U.S. is up under Trump.