Getty/Palo Alto University Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh
Various Political Prediction Markets Reflected a Nosedive for Confirmation Odds on Sunday
Betting sites say Kavanaugh is toast: t.co/uNWQ1S00HM
Stock in the market for Kavanaugh receiving 49 or fewer votes — meaning that his nomination would fail — skyrocked Sunday in light of Ramirez’s allegation.
Earlier this afternoon, stock in the market for 49 or fewer was below 40 percent. In other words, it went from 60-40 that he’d be confirmed to 70-30 that he won’t be.
Similarly, the British betting exchange Smarkets reflected a drop in Kavanaugh’s confirmation likelihood from 96.2 percent to 71.9 percent as of Monday, September 17.
Kavanaugh’s Public Support Marks a Historic Low for Supreme Court Nominees, Per an NBC Poll
Prediction markets are taking the Kavanaugh allegations seriously.
Senate confirmation vote odds – including Collins & Murkowski – are all down.
There’s now only a 55% chance he will be confirmed this month.
t.co/ICIp75IoGj
An NBC/Washington Post poll recently revealed that Kavanaugh is the least-liked Supreme Court nominee in 30 years, since Robert Bork in 1987. Bork was not confirmed to the Supreme Court.
In fact, no Supreme Court nominee with a negative net favorability (meaning that more people disapprove of the nomination than approve of it) has been appointed to the Supreme Court since 1987. Kavanaugh is currently at a -4 net favorability rating; put differently, 34 percent of those polled supported Kavanaugh’s nomination, and 38 percent disapproved of it, as of last Sunday.