All eyes are on Florida. It’s pretty close to a must-win state for President Donald Trump. There are a few electoral college pathways for Trump to retain the presidency, but it would be a steep hill to climb.
Decision Desk HQ has now declared President Donald Trump as the winner in Florida. For live election results out of Florida, click here.
That begs the question as Floridians head out to vote on November 3: What did the latest polls out of Florida say on election day 2020?
According to The New York Times, former Vice President Joe Biden told Floridians, “Here in Florida you can determine the outcome of this election. We win Florida and it’s all over.”
Who’s likely to win, if you believe the polls?
Here’s what you need to know:
Biden Has a Slight Edge in Florida Polling Averages
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Biden is ahead .09% in Florida, as of the latest polls on election day.
The most recent polls out of Florida show:
Taken: 10/29 -11/1
St. Pete Polls
The site lists Trafalgar as leaning Republican and CNBC/Change Research as leaning Democratic. You can read our story on Trafalgar Group here. They are a controversial pollster who predicted key states and the electoral college right in 2016 when others had them wrong.
In 2016, the final RCP polling average was Trump 0.2 percent. Trump won by 1.2 percent, meaning he was 1% ahead of the polls.
The election statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight has Biden slightly favored to win Florida.
Can Trump Still Win if He Loses Florida?
Florida brings its winner 29 electoral votes, so it matters for both candidates, but it’s almost a must-win state for Trump. We found a couple pathways to victory for Trump even without Florida, but they represent a very difficult map for the president.
In this map, Trump loses Florida and Wisconsin but still wins by picking up Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
We created our maps using RealClearPolitic’s customizable electoral college map.
The president would have to win almost all remaining battleground states if he loses Florida. For example, he could lose Florida and Nevada but win by picking up the three Midwestern states he flipped in 2016 – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
If Trump loses Florida, there aren’t many combinations that get him the presidency without Florida, but there are a lot of ways to lose. In this map, we gave Nevada to Biden.
Trump can’t lose all three Midwestern states he won in 2016 (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) AND lose Florida. The math doesn’t work. Michigan and Pennsylvania would get him through.