Packers Positioned to Gain New Pick From Jets Via Rodgers Trade

Getty Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets.

The Green Bay Packers won’t have Aaron Rodgers‘ arm to lean on this season, but that doesn’t mean their old quarterback can’t still help the team in 2023.

Green Bay brought back a haul from the New York Jets in exchange for Rodgers, despite the quarterback’s advanced age (39), his open talk of retirement and his onerous contract. The crown jewel of the Packers’ trade return is a conditional 2024 draft pick, which transitions from a second-round selection to a first-rounder if Rodgers plays 65% of the Jets’ offensive snaps in 2023.

Rodgers made things a little easier on his new franchise last week, agreeing to a $35 million pay cut over the next two years. He explained his decision as a desire to create room for the Jets to make a move at this year’s trade deadline if a premier player becomes available.

“This year, compared to like 2005, the amount of transactions that happen now with guys getting cut and the amount of trades — way more than before,” Rodgers told Peter King of NBC Sports on July 31. “Big names move at the trade deadline now. I wanted to make sure that if somebody valuable came available that we’d be able to get him.”

But dealing for a big name at the deadline won’t be that simple, especially if New York needs to flip a first- or second-round draft pick in 2024 to get the deal done.

Justis Mosqueda of SB Nation’s Acme Packing Co. explained on Wednesday that in such a scenario, the Jets will essentially need to get permission from the Packers to move one of those two picks in a trade, which means extra draft compensation could come Green Bay’s way as a result.

Packers Can Pick Up Additional 4th-Round Draft Pick From Jets in 2024

GettyFormer Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers walks off the field after an NFL game.

The problem for the Jets is that the percentage of snaps Rodgers plays can’t be calculated and finalized until the end of the regular season in January, while the NFL’s trade deadline is October 31. Because of that, which draft pick New York will owe Green Bay (either its 2024 first or second) will still be in limbo.

As a result, “the Jets do not have the freedom to use either draft pick at the trade deadline without first coming to a new agreement with the Packers,” Mosqueda explained, noting that he confirmed those details with league sources.

In the hypothetical scenario Mosqueda lays out, the Jets hope to trade their 2024 second-round pick as part of a package to secure Rodgers’ former teammate Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders. The rest goes as follows:

Assuming that Rodgers has started every game for the Jets at this point … Rodgers should have played around 42 percent of the Jets’ projected season-long offensive snaps.

At that point, which is the bigger gamble for Green Bay? Is it assuming the risk that Rodgers won’t play at least 4 more games in the remaining 10 weeks of the regular season, or is it voluntarily allowing a team whose first-round draft pick they’ll likely own get better? Based on conversations I’ve had, I would guess that Green Bay would turn down this offer.

The Jets then make a counteroffer, adding another draft choice (maybe a 2024 fourth-round pick) to the mix on top of conceding their 2024 first-round pick. That is something that might interest [Green Bay] enough … to get the Packers to agree to new terms.

Packers Can Erase All Value Lost Beyond Aaron Rodgers With Extra Draft Pick From Jets

GettyGreen Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst (left) speaks with head coach Matt LaFleur (right) during an OTA practice session in May 2023.

Green Bay already secured a first-round pick swap from the Jets this year that helped the Packers land edge defender Lukas Van Ness at No. 13 and kept the Jets from drafting a first-round offensive tackle to help protect Rodgers at No 15.

The Packers also received the No. 42 overall pick in 2023, which the team used to select tight end Luke Musgrave and fill a considerable roster hole at a position of need. Green Bay used the final 2023 draft asset it acquired from New York to draft kicker Anders Carlson in the sixth round as a potential replacement for long-time special teams ace Mason Crosby.

No matter what transpires at the trade deadline in New York this season, the Packers will receive either a first-round or second-round pick from the Jets next season. History indicates that the pick will probably come in the first round, as Rodgers hasn’t been particularly injury prone over his NFL career, appearing in fewer than 15 games only twice (2013, 2017) since becoming a full-time starter 15 years ago.

Adding another selection on top of everything the Packers have already received for Rodgers — for instance, the fourth-rounder Mosqueda suggested — would more than erase the value lost via the 2023 fifth-round selection the Packers sent to the Jets as part the trade earlier this offseason. That was the only other asset Green Bay included in the deal aside from the rights to Rodgers’ contract.