The Denver Broncos have seen the impact of an improved Russell Wilson throughout the team’s five-game winning streak. Wilson’s improvement under head coach Sean Payton has boosted his standing in the analytics community.
Mike Sando of The Athletic looked at how defense and special teams influenced team success for each NFL quarterback. Sando surprisingly ranked Wilson No. 20 on the outlet’s “Quarterback Betrayal Index.”
“The Broncos’ four best offensive EPA games included three games in the first four weeks of the season when the DST was struggling,” Sando wrote in an article published on November 30. “The team went only 2-2 in those games as a result. Times have changed. The DST has produced 46 EPA over Denver’s last four games, compared to minus-11 EPA for the offense. The Broncos’ victory against Cleveland in Week 12 marked the first time this season the team finished a game with positive EPA on both offense and DST.”
Wilson was slotted between two MVP hopefuls, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa. Denver’s offense ranks 18th in median offensive EPA per game. The defense and special teams ranked 16th for the Broncos to earn a betrayal index rating of +2.
EPA, or expected points added, measures how well a team performs relative to expectation, according to The 33rd Team. Sando had not factored in EPA production per game for each of Wilson’s starts. Extreme outlier games were not included to discourage influencing the results “disproportionately.”
An outlier game like the Week 3 debacle in Miami had no bearing on these rankings. The defense has not betrayed Wilson and the offense the last few weeks as they did early in the year.
Sean Payton Breaks Down Russell Wilson’s Longevity: ‘I Don’t See Age’
Throughout Wilson’s first season in Denver, media members had questioned what happened to the once-elusive playmaker. Age had seemingly caught up to him before Payton’s arrival.
Following Wilson’s 35th birthday on November 29, the head coach was asked about his quarterback’s longevity.
Payton noted that “an extremely diligent workout routine” has worked wonders for the star.
“I don’t see age with players like Russ,” Payton told reporters on November 29. “I don’t see 35. I wouldn’t have guessed how old he was. He takes care of his body; he works out extremely diligently and hard and I think that’s necessary when you’re playing at this level.”
Wilson is playing his best football since being traded from the Seattle Seahawks in March 2022.
NFL Writer Debates Whether Russell Wilson’s Narrative Has Shifted
The Seahawks and Broncos have been going in opposite directions as of late. Denver has won five straight, while Seattle lost three of their last four games. One NFL writer debates whether the narrative of Wilson has shifted since he split from the Seahawks.
Mike Salk of Seattle Sports explained how Payton has allowed Wilson to get back on track. Salk believes Wilson would not have progressed “without the failure of last season.”
“Russ isn’t running the show like he was last year, but he also isn’t being protected in any way,” Salk wrote in his November 27 article. “His new coach has held him accountable both publicly and privately in a way he hadn’t experienced in years.”
The failures of the Nathaniel Hackett era implored the Broncos to hire Payton to save Wilson’s career. Salk implies Wilson had to learn the hard way as the only way to look himself in the mirror.
“In all likelihood, Russ needed to go through the depths of last season to be open to change. In other words, he needed to see proof that the way he wanted to play wasn’t actually good for him before he would return to the style that had made him so successful,” Salk wrote.
Learning the hard way was the correct move for Wilson. The star has been “cooking” with efficiency under Payton. Wilson ranks 22nd in the league in passing attempts yet fifth in efficiency, Salk pointed out.
Comments
Broncos’ Russell Wilson Earns Surprising Ranking on NFL QB Betrayal Index