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For the third time during the respective Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen eras, the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) and Buffalo Bills (11-6) will face-off in the AFC playoff bracket on Sunday, January 21 at 6:30 p.m. EST.
Allen and the Bills are 0-2 against Mahomes and the Chiefs during the postseason despite going 3-1 against them in regular season matchups since 2018. The only difference in January of 2024 is that this Divisional Round game will be played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, rather than Arrowhead Stadium in KC.
After heading into the bye week with an up-and-down track record that yielded a 6-6 record, Buffalo has won six straight outings including the Wild Card game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. On the flip side, Kansas City has dropped four out of their last nine after starting out 7-2. They bested the Miami Dolphins at home during round one of the NFL Playoffs.
With everything on the line this weekend, here are five Divisional Round predictions generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, brought to you courtesy of our partners at Quarter 4:
1. There Will Be More Scoring Than Vegas Anticipates
All seven major sportsbooks in our database currently have an over/under total ranging from 45.0 to 46.5 on January 17, however, Quarter 4 projects a total of 48.5. Below are the current figures on each site.
- DraftKings: 45.0.
- PointsBet: 45.0.
- ESPN Bet: 45.5.
- FanDuel: 45.5.
- BetMGM: 45.5.
- Bet365: 45.5.
- SugarHouse: 46.5.
The past two outings between the Chiefs and Bills have had totals under 45.0, while three out of the first four head-to-heads during the Mahomes-Allen era have gone well over that number. Obviously, both these quarterbacks can put up points — and fast — but the weather in Buffalo bears watching.
The forecast shows snow in Orchard Park from today (Jan. 17) up until Saturday (Jan. 20), according to AccuWeather. Fortunately, the weather around Highmark Stadium is expected to clear up a bit on Sunday ahead of kickoff — with partly sunny skies and a 9% chance of precipitation.
At night, AccuWeather currently forecasts temperature lows of 18°F (RealFeel of 4°F), along with SSW 15 mph winds and gusts up to 21 mph.
The KC defense has kept their scorelines low most weeks, and their last total greater than 45.5 was the Week 13 loss to the Green Bay Packers by a score of 27-19. Ironically, the game before (a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders) also went over that number.
As for Buffalo, three of their past five games have finished with more total points than 45.5 — if you include the Wild Card Round. The Week 14 matchup between the Chiefs and Bills ended with 37 points.
2. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Will Throw for More Yardage Than Bills’ Josh Allen, With At Least 1 Passing TD Each
Mahomes and Allen have become two of the faces of the NFL in recent years, and we could be in for another instant classic between the pair of gunslinger quarterbacks.
Our projections have Mahomes throwing for more yardage than Allen in this one — but mainly because he’s expected to attempt more passes. The Chiefs QB sits at an expected total of 278.2 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns off 38.4 attempts, while the Bills superstar has projections of 241.5 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns off 31.2 attempts.
Quarter 4 also gives Allen the slight edge in completion percentage (67.4% compared to 66.9%), with Mahomes having a very narrow edge in the interception department (0.5 INTs compared to 0.6).
3. Chiefs WR Rashee Rice Will Score TD & Come Very Close to Back-to-Back 100-Yard Performances
There are several big-name pass-catchers taking the field on Sunday evening, but Quarter 4 estimates that Chiefs rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice will lead the pack.
One week after torching the Dolphins defense for eight catches and 130 yards, Rice is projected for 92.7 receiving yards off seven catches. That is the highest projection for either team.
The model also states that Rice will find the end zone once again, with his ninth receiving touchdown of the 2023-24 campaign.
The first-year breakout has emerged as Mahomes’ new favorite target in 2023 — considering tight end Travis Kelce is generally double-teamed. His yards-after-catch ability is the real danger to opposing defenses. Against Miami, 80 out of Rice’s 130 receiving yards came after the catch according to Next Gen Stats.
4. Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid Will Push WR Stefon Diggs for Bills’ Most Yards & Receptions
On Buffalo’s side of the ball, Quarter 4 expects a more diverse passing attack. This follows the recent trends of both teams, as the Chiefs offense has really relied on Rice and Kelce through the air while Allen and the Bills have spread the ball around more.
Superstar wideout Stefon Diggs still has the highest projections for Buffalo pass-catchers, but rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid is not far behind.
- Diggs’ projected stats: 5.4 receptions, 58.4 receiving yards.
- Kincaid’s projected stats: 3.8 receptions, 55.1 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns.
Similar to Rice, Kincaid has emerged as the season has progressed. The past three weeks, the tight end has achieved receiving totals of 87, 84 and 59 against the Steelers. Allen has targeted him 21 times over that span.
From there, WR Khalil Shakir (3.3 for 45.4 yards), WR Gabe Davis (2.1 for 42.4 yards), RB James Cook (2.6 for 26.5 yards) and TE Dawson Knox (1.6 for 20.4 yards) round out top projections for the Bills core of weapons.
5. Either George Karlaftis, Chris Jones or Charles Omenihu Will Record Sack on Josh Allen as Chiefs Upset Bills
The spread currently ranges from Bills -2.5 to Bills -3.0 on each of the seven major sportsbooks, but our model is predicting a Chiefs win probability of 51% and a line of Chiefs -0.5.
If Kansas City does come out victorious in the playoffs once again, their defense will likely play a major role in this winter matchup. On that note, Quarter 4 anticipates a sack from one of three Chiefs defenders.
Defensive linemen George Karlaftis (0.9), Chris Jones (0.7) and Charles Omenihu (0.6) all currently have sack projections over 0.5. By that combined probability, at least one of these three is expected to bring down Allen on Sunday — if not more.
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is also projected to impact the outcome with one rushing touchdown and 65 yards on the ground. Cook, on the other hand, has rushing projections of 61.5 yards and no touchdowns.
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