The Kansas City Chiefs are two wins from making NFL history, but a familiar foe stands in their way in the AFC Championship Game: the Buffalo Bills.
Last week, the Chiefs took care of business against the Houston Texans, 23-14, to advance to their seventh consecutive AFC title game. As for the Bills, they avenged a regular-season loss with a win at home over the Baltimore Ravens.
Sunday will be the fourth time in the last five years that Kansas City and Buffalo have battled in the playoffs. While Josh Allen and the Bills have been successful in the regular season against the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City have had Buffalo’s number in the playoffs.
The Chiefs have won all three playoff matchups between Mahomes and Allen. Before the two squads lock horns once again, let’s take a look at some keys in this game.
Turnover Battle
The turnover battle will be crucial in this matchup. The Bills have been the best team when it comes to turnovers. On offense, Josh Allen and company turned the ball over only eight times this season (best in the NFL).
On defense, Buffalo forced 32 takeaways, yielding a league-best +24 in the turnover margin in the regular season. The offense has also been effective in taking advantage of their opportunities, scoring 128 points off turnovers (best in the NFL).
The Chiefs have gone eight straight games without committing a turnover. While the Kansas City defense only forced 20 takeaways this season, 11 of those have come since Week 12.
The last time the Chiefs committed a turnover was against the Bills when Mahomes threw two interceptions in the loss. With both teams taking care of the football and limiting turnovers, any giveaway could be the difference in the game.
Spreading the Ball Around
Another key in this game will be the ability to spread the ball around the field. A battle that I will be locked in on is which quarterback will be able to get their secondary options the ball.
For Allen, his top target, Khalil Shakir, will likely have Trent McDuffie shading him throughout the matchup. This means the MVP finalist will have to get his two tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, along with Amari Cooper involved early and often.
As for Mahomes, he will need to look for Xavier Worthy, Deandre Hopkins, and Hollywood Brown to open up more opportunities for his go-to target, Travis Kelce. While he struggled to get his wide receivers involved against the Texans, Mahomes has done a great job of sharing the wealth this season.
This season, nine different Chiefs hauled in at least 25 catches. While that might not be a hefty number, it shows that Mahomes is not scared to throw to anyone. A big emphasis for the Buffalo defense will be to limit Kelce. This will open up the field for Worthy, Brown, and Hopkins.
Health
When Kansas City went to Buffalo in the regular season, they were missing some key pieces on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs were missing Charles Omenihu on defense, along with Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown on offense.
Omenihu made an impact last week with a strip sack of C.J. Stroud and has been a major boost to the pass rush since his return from a torn ACL. Having Watson in the secondary gives the Chiefs an advantage on Sunday.
With Watson back on the outside, the Chiefs can move Trent McDuffie to the slot against Shakir. In that Week 11 matchup, Shakir took advantage of matching up against Nazeeh Johnson, finishing with eight catches for 70 yards.
McDuffie has proven to be one of the premiere corners in the league, and his ability to shade Shakir will force Allen to look for his secondary options. Watson also opens up more blitz opportunities.
It was evident last week that Kansas City was able to draw up the blitz more often, finishing with eight sacks in the win. Expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to blitz often to make Allen uncomfortable.
The return of Hollywood Brown gives Mahomes another reliable option. Brown is explosive in space and a deep threat, who could play a big role in this matchup. While Pacheco hasn’t looked great since his return, having him and Kareem Hunt as a tandem is still dangerous.
For Buffalo, they will be without safety Taylor Rapp, who injured his hip in last week’s Divisional Round win. Rapp finished the regular season with 82 total tackles, the fourth-most on the team. Losing him will test the Bills’ depth at safety.
Other injuries for Buffalo include linebacker Matt Milano and cornerbacks Christian Benford and Taron Johnson. While I expect all three of them to play, the Buffalo defense is nowhere near 100 percent and could be in trouble if the Chiefs get the offense going.
Prediction
I am very excited for this game. Two of the league’s best quarterbacks battling for a spot in the Super Bowl. It is always a close matchup when these two teams face off and it always seems to come down to a play or two.
I think this one is no different. It will come down to which team makes the plays when they need to most. The Chiefs have proven throughout this season that whenever they need to make a play; they make it.
I think Kansas City makes the necessary plays to win this game. I also think the health of each team will play a factor in this game, and the Chiefs are as healthy as they can be.
SCORE: Chiefs 31, Bills 27
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Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: Keys to Victory