Getty Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell and quarterback Kirk Cousins.
The Minnesota Vikings did the most homework they have done on a quarterback draft class this year since selecting Teddy Bridgewater in 2014.
The Vikings did select Jaren Hall in the fifth round, however, he’s unlikely to take the starting reigns in 2024 — leaving Minnesota with no answers beyond Kirk Cousins after next season.
Cousins and the Vikings failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension this offseason, effectively sending the four-time Pro Bowl quarterback into a contract year. Cousins, speaking for the first time publicly after the contract talks fell out, shared that he hopes to pick up talks in March — ergo he intends to play the market as a pending free agent.
That decision leaves former NFL general manager Randy Mueller uneasy about the future at quarterback, suggesting Minnesota should have selected Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker, whom the Vikings did extensive homework on before the draft.
“I am not the biggest Kirk Cousins supporter but I do think he showed enough functional skills to see this year through,” Mueller wrote, via The Athletic. “What I worry about is the quarterback plan for the future. I would have loved for the Vikings to have drafted Hendon Hooker (who went to the Lions in the third round) to redshirt for a year and not be held hostage by another contract standoff by Cousins, who turns 35 in August and has a contract that voids next year. The future at this position is uncertain, to say the least.”
Jaren Hall’s Odds of Becoming a Kirk Cousins-Level Replacement Are Slim
A former fourth-round pick, Cousins is among a rare group of quarterbacks who have bucked the trends and become Pro Bowl-caliber signal-callers.
Of the 25 quarterbacks to either make an initial Pro Bowl roster or earn a first-team All-Pro nod from 2012 to 2022, 72% were taken in the first round of the draft, according to The Athletic.
“If you want a stud quarterback, draft him early. Eighteen of the 25 elite quarterbacks in this 10-year sample were drafted in the first round, 16 of them within the first 12 picks,” The Athletic’s Bo Wulf wrote. Relative to the other positions, quarterback has the earliest median pick for its studs (10.5) and the highest first-round percentage (72 percent). That’s what you would expect for the most valuable position.”
The odds are largely stacked against Hall becoming anything more than a quality backup quarterback in the NFL with only 12% of Day 3 picks going on to earn either Pro Bowl or All-Pro honors.
Banking on Hall to replace Cousins and be ready to make a playoff run in the next two seasons isn’t a probable bet the Vikings should make if they hope to contend beyond the 2023 season.
Vikings’ Future at QB Will Impact Justin Jefferson’s Extension
The future of the quarterback position in Minnesota will have plenty of swing on Justin Jefferson‘s future as well.
Jefferson is a competitor at heart and won’t want to squander years of his prime in a franchise that will be trying out quarterbacks. He would be inclined to take a shorter-term contract if the answer isn’t clear.
Whether Cousins stays or Minnesota wants to make a move for another veteran or first-round prospect, the clock is ticking for the Vikings to make a move by next year.