Vikings Facing QB Dilemma After Sam Darnold’s Hot Start

Getty Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold

Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy‘s future in Minnesota has come into question given Sam Darnold‘s hot start — but KSTP’s Darren Wolfson is still certain that McCarthy is the quarterback of the future.

In a September 19 appearance on “Minnesota Sports with Mackey and Judd,” Wolfson addressed the question of Darnold securing a long-term contract in Minnesota if he continues his level of play.

Darnold has led the Vikings to a 2-0 start to the season for the first time since 2016 and is among the top five quarterbacks in the league in most advanced statistical categories.

Even under the conditions that Darnold maintains his level of playing, finishing as a top-five quarterback and leading the Vikings to a playoff win, Wolfson said there is a “low chance” the Vikings would re-sign him and defer their plans with McCarthy.

“I think it’s relatively low. I’m not suggesting it’s 0%, but it’s still low,” Wolfson said, adding that coach Kevin O’Connell made a statement when McCarthy underwent season-ending surgery on his meniscus was a calculated tell of the Vikings’ future at quarterback.

However, if McCarthy cannot pick up where Darnold let off, leading the Vikings to the playoffs in 2025, the decision to let Darnold go could backfire.

Kevin O’Connell Crowned J.J. McCarthy the Vikings’ Franchise QB This Summer

GettyJ.J. McCarthy #9 of the Minnesota Vikings.

Following an impressive preseason debut, McCarthy had some knee soreness that proved to be a partially torn meniscus. He underwent an operation before the Vikings’ joint practices.

When O’Connell announced that McCarthy would miss the 2024 season, he tipped his cap to McCarthy being the long-term answer at quarterback.

“Everyone should be excited that we got our young franchise quarterback in the building,” O’Connell said on August 14, per the Minnesota Star Tribune.

When the Vikings were riding the quarterback carousel in 2023 following Kirk Cousins‘ season-ending Achilles injury, O’Connell rarely showed much favor to his stable of quarterbacks.

That was the case when Darnold and McCarthy entered spring workouts and training camp.

But by mid-August, O’Connell had seen enough from the 21-year-old quarterback to be confident in that statement that fits the Vikings’ timeline to contention.

Vikings Looking to Reap Benefits of McCarthy’s Rookie Contract

GettyQuarterback J.J. McCarthy of the Minnesota Vikings.

When the Vikings signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal in March, it was under the stipulation that he would have a chance to prove his worth while the Vikings took a developmental approach with a rookie quarterback.

If Darnold maintains his level of play, his representation will likely seek a long-term, starting quarterback contract — something on par with Baker Mayfield‘s three-year, $100 million deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Vikings are already enjoying the benefits of offloading Cousins’ contract, reloading the defense with young talent entering their prime. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman were all top-100 free agents in Pro Football Focus’ 2024 rankings. They all signed multi-year deals.

Darnold is enjoying the benefits of a rebuilt roster despite the Vikings eating $28.5 million in dead cap to part ways with Cousins this season.

That sets the Vikings up nicely in 2025 when they’ll have the fifth-most effective cap space ($65.9 million) in the league to fortify the roster further.

Teams often sign veteran free-agent quarterbacks when believe they’re one piece away from contending. It’s an all-in approach that can only last a few years given the massive cost of a veteran quarterback’s salary.

But with McCarthy under contract through the 2027 season at just $5.5 million a year, the Vikings will have the cap flexibility to continue to build around him through his development years.