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The Seattle Seahawks (8-8) need a win in Week 18, and they’ll face the NFC West rival Arizona Cardinals (4-12) with the 2023 season on the line.
Heading into the final weekend, the Seahawks are the No. 8 seed and on the outside looking in. If they beat the Cardinals, their playoff odds jump from 26% to 44% according to NFL.com. If they lose, their chance at the postseason drops to <1%.
To help you prepare for this dramatic conclusion to Seattle’s 2023 campaign, here are five predictions generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4:
1. Seahawks Are Expected to Win by More Points Than Vegas Anticipates
Six of the seven major sportsbooks in our database have this matchup’s spread set at -3.0 in favor of the Seahawks. The final sportsbook, SugarHouse, is actually giving the Cardinals an extra half-point at +2.5.
Despite that, Quarter 4 is projecting a line of Seahawks -4.5. That means Seattle is expected to win their final game by more than a field goal.
With everything on the line in Week 18, it’s possible that the Seahawks pour it on against a Cardinals team that’s season has ended. Divisional matchups are always tough, however, and this game will be played in Arizona.
2. Seahawks QB Geno Smith Is Expected to Pass for Big Numbers With the Playoffs on the Line
Geno Smith has thrown for an average of 245.4 yards per game in 2023. Quarter 4 expects him to smash that average in Week 18 though, with a projection of 276.9 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns against Arizona.
Smith actually topped 277 passing yards during his last start in Week 17. He did not reach that mark in Week 16 and was injured before that outing.
Prior to his injury, Smith achieved a passing total of 250 yards or greater in six of his first 12 starts. That means the Seahawks QB has gone over that mark in exactly 50% of his performances this year.
As usual, wide receivers DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba project as Smith’s top targets on Sunday.
The Cardinals defense has done well against the pass this year, with the 13th least passing yards allowed in 2023, so this won’t necessarily be an easy matchup for the Seahawks QB despite high expectations.
3. Kyler Murray Will Score At Least 1 Touchdown for Cardinals, But Won’t Put Up Lots of Yardage
The Quarter 4 projections have Kyler Murray scoring 1.5 touchdowns through the air, but they do not have him surpassing his 219.6 passing yards per game average in Week 18.
Instead, Murray is expected to be held to just 209.2 passing yards. His completion percentage is also estimated at 64.6% — which is right around his season average of 64.7%.
On the ground, the dual threat quarterback is expected to rush for 27 yards. That number is below both his season and career averages of 30.1 and 37.7.
A lack of weapons could also limit Murray’s total output versus a hungry Seahawks defense (more on that below).
4. Cardinals Tight End Trey McBride Is Greatest Pass-Catching Threat for Seahawks Defense in Week 18
The Cardinals are missing Marquise “Hollywood” Brown for this rematch with Seattle. That leaves them with rookie Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore and Zach Pascal as Murray’s top wide receiver options in Week 18.
Having said that, the top priority for the Seattle defense will be tight end Trey McBride according to Quarter 4.
Our model projects McBride will catch 6.6 passes for 67.5 receiving yards versus the Seahawks. He was also given a 0.5 estimation for total touchdowns.
McBride has been on a tear ever since Zach Ertz’s injury earlier this season. He now has 78 receptions for 791 yards and two touchdowns, and that includes two 100-plus-yard performances since Week 10.
Running back James Conner expects to be a key part of the Arizona offense as well, with a projected 71.4 rushing yards and 18.2 receiving yards.
5. There Will Be Less Scoring Than Vegas Anticipates
As of the evening of January 5, five major sportsbooks set the over/under total at 47.5 points. The other two have that mark set at 48.0.
Our model is predicting less scoring than Vegas, with a projected total of 45.0.
Over the past four weeks, the Seahawks have allowed 17 points twice, 28 once and 30 in the most recent outing. Only Week 17’s total was more than 45 points.
On the flip side, two of the last four Cardinals outings have gone well over that number, while the other two have not. The weather will not be a factor, considering the Cardinals play in a dome.
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