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Bernie Sanders’ Nomination Chances: Senator Is a Long Shot

Bernie Sanders chances, Bernie Sanders odds, Bernie Sanders polls

Bernie Sanders faces long odds for the rest of the race. (Getty)

April 26 was a disaster for Bernie Sanders. Hillary Clinton took Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, and Connecticut, with Sanders winning only the comparatively delegate-poor Rhode Island primary. The updated delegate count puts Hillary Clinton a little more than 200 delegates from the Democratic nomination.

Democratic Delegate Count (2,383 Needed)
Hillary Clinton 2,165
Bernie Sanders 1,357

With Sanders running out of states, he’ll need some major wins to pull off a victory or even force a contested convention. Unfortunately, the polling, projections and odds from California, Indiana and New Jersey greatly favor Clinton.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:


The Polls: Clinton Up Big

Polls from the three most delegate-rich states, as aggregated by RealClearPolitics and Huffpost Pollster, favor Clinton by a wide margin:

California RealClearPolitics Averages 475 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 49%
Bernie Sanders 42.5%

 

Indiana Huffpost Pollster Averages 83 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 48.5%
Bernie Sanders 43.5%

 

New Jersey RealClearPolitics Averages* 126 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 57.8%
Bernie Sanders 27.8%

*Limited recent polling


Projections: Major States Favor Clinton

FiveThirtyEight, which uses a polls-plus forecast utilizing factors like endorsements and previous results to give context to the polls, has Clinton as the favorite in the three biggest primaries:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast: Indiana
Hillary Clinton 91%
Bernie Sanders 9%

 

FiveThirtyEight Poll Tracking: New Jersey
Hillary Clinton 51.1%
Bernie Sanders 41.3%

 

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast: California
Hillary Clinton 89%
Bernie Sanders 11%

Democratic VP Odds & Predictions: Julian Castro in the Lead

HUD Secretary Julian Castro leads the Vice President odds.

Click here to read more

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10 comments

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  2. THIS Video will DESTROY HER NOMINATION ,Google “”””Keith Olbermann Special Comment: Clinton-Obama Assassination””””. no one but no one will ever VOTE for Hillary Clinton after watching this, I promise you, it is very very Damaging, it is OVER for her than come post me an answer if you like, I will take it with Grace .SHE IS FINISHED after this Video ,and BERNIE SANDERS supporters are circulating this with millions right now. SHE IS NOT going to be nominated,I am 100% sure

  3. Hillary still needs 717 pledged delegates to clench the nomination. This will be difficult for her because she’ll have to win all of the upcoming states by more than 70%. Very unlikely. We’re looking at a contested convention in July. Super delegates will then get to vote for their preferred candidate, not before as this article suggests as well as many news sources keep getting wrong since 2008.

    Independent voters are now the largest voting group and they overwhelmingly support Sanders as our Democratic nominee. Super delegates that currently support Hillary have promised to reflect the voters’ choice when they select their preferred candidate. In July, super delegates should vow to reflect the MAJORITY of the nation’s preferred Democratic candidate.

    https://amp.twimg.com/v/c2366a37-82c1-4beb-b054-eb7f8e3b7419
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Superdelegate_endorsements
    http://tominpaine.blogspot.com/2016/02/hillary-clintons-super-delegate-lies.html

  4. Hillary still needs 717 pledged delegates to clench the nomination. This will be difficult for her because she’ll have to win all of the upcoming states by more than 70%. Very unlikely. We’re looking at a contested convention in July. Super delegates will then get to vote for their preferred candidate, not before as this article and many news sources keep getting wrong since 2008.

    Super delegates that currently support Hillary have promised to reflect the voters’ choice when they select their preferred candidate. Independent voters are now the largest voting group and they overwhelmingly support Sanders as the Democratic nominee.

    In July, super delegates should vow to reflect the majority of the nation’s preferred Democratic candidate.

    • “Super delegates should vow to reflect the majority of the nation’s preferred Democratic candidate”

      Uhhh yeah..that would be Clinton since she’s 3.2 million votes and 290+ PLEDGE delegates ahead. Why are you people so f..king stupid?

  5. LOLOL…538 biased much? WAAAY WRONG in INDIANA, So WRONG in CALIFORNIA, WRONG IN JERSEY IS my bet ;p