Let’s Predict the 16-Driver Cup Series Playoff Field

Getty The NASCAR Cup Series drivers race at Talladega Superspeedway.

The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season kicks off on February 20 with the Daytona 500. This race marks the first time that the drivers will battle for points in the Gen 7 stock cars, and it creates some questions about which drivers will reach the playoffs. With that in mind, it’s time to predict the 16-driver field.

There are some drivers that will be “guarantees” to reach the championship chase. These are the men with consistent performances year-over-year and several trips to Victory Lane. Martin Truex Jr. is an obvious choice considering that he has reached the playoffs every season since 2015, a run that includes the championship win in 2017 and runner-up finishes in 2021, 2019, and 2018. Truex also reached the championship four in 2015.

Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin both sit in similar situations. They have been two of the most consistent drivers with long runs of winning seasons. Hamlin has reached Victory Lane at least once every year since 2006, with the exception of 2018. Though he still reached the playoffs. Logano, for comparison, has won at least once every season since 2012. He captured the title in 2018, and he reached the championship four in even-numbered seasons dating back to 2014.

Kyle Busch joins two of his JGR teammates as a top option to return to the playoffs. The driver of the No. 18 is currently on a 17-year run of consecutive seasons with a win, and he continues to show that he is one of the best drivers in the Cup Series on a regular basis.

It’s impossible to count out the drivers at Hendrick Motorsports due to the combination of talent and funding. Reigning champion Kyle Larson will enter the year as a favorite after he won 10 points-paying races and turned in a dominant season. Similarly, Chase Elliott added two more wins to his collection while reaching the championship four for the second consecutive season. He would have had more trips to Victory Lane, but he could not chase down Larson at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Sonoma Raceway, and Watkins Glen International.

Alex Bowman is fresh off a career year that featured four trips to Victory Lane. The HMS driver did not secure his spot in the championship four, but he delivered at some difficult tracks while displaying a new level of confidence.

Byron only won the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but he spent the majority of the year fighting for a return to Victory Lane. He followed up his win with 10 consecutive top-10 finishes and ended the year with 20 overall.

Certain Drivers Will Face Questions

GettyBrad Keselowski will fight for the playoffs at another organization.

While some of the drivers will enter the season as “locks” to reach the playoffs, others will have bigger question marks surrounding them. This list includes Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Tyler Reddick.

Keselowski is a major question mark considering that he now races for a different team. He has consistently reached the playoffs while driving for Team Penske, but RFK is an entirely different operation. The organization is smaller overall, but Chris Buescher came within reach of the playoffs while Ryan Newman dealt with his fair share of struggles.

Will Keselowski get RFK Racing back to its winning ways while continuing his streak of consecutive seasons with a win? This task will not be easy, but the 2012 Cup Series champion has both the talent to contend, as well as a large number of new team members to help make improvements.

Harvick and Reddick sit in different situations. The driver of the No. 4 is fresh off his first winless season since 2009, a byproduct of Stewart-Haas Racing’s struggles, but he still finished the year fifth in points due to his consistency. Will he continue this trend during the 2022 season while taking over the Gen 7, or will he fall back into the pack? Given Harvick’s long stretch of production, it’s more likely that he wins again and returns to the playoffs.

Reddick made the playoffs for the first time in 2021 after narrowly edging out teammate Austin Dillon. The two Richard Childress Racing drivers battled all season long, but only one secured a spot in the 16-driver field. If not for a last-lap wreck at the Coke Zero Sugar 400, Dillon could have been the one that stole the final playoff spot.

There was a razor-thin margin between the RCR teammates, which could return in 2022. Both Dillon and Reddick are capable of securing a spot in the playoffs, but the driver of the No. 8 is the choice right now based on his progress during his second full-time season.

There Could Be Multiple First-Time Playoff Drivers

GettyRoss Chastain will make his Trackhouse Racing debut in 2022.

The 2022 season will remain fascinating due to the number of drivers moving to new organizations, as well as the addition of the Gen 7 stock cars. There is a potential for several new drivers joining the championship chase, provided the new cars level the playing field. If so, which will achieve this goal?

There are numerous solid options ranging from Corey LaJoie to Bubba Wallace and Austin Cindric. All of the drivers have talent, and they could contend for wins with more universal equipment. However, certain names stand out as top options.

Ross Chastain and Justin Haley both have a considerable amount of experience in the Cup Series, which includes runs with Spire Motorsports. Chastain also came within reach of the playoffs during his first full-time season with Chip Ganassi Racing. Now he will join forces with Daniel Suarez at Trackhouse Racing after a season in which he posted eight top-10 finishes and three top-fives, including a runner-up at Nashville Superspeedway and a third-place finish at Darlington Raceway.

Haley has fewer starts in the Cup Series, but he already has one win in his career — Daytona International Speedway in 2019. He will now take over as the full-time driver of the No. 31 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet Camaro after he made 31 Cup Series starts in 2021.

Haley will enter his “rookie” season with a full season’s worth of experience, and he will work with a team that has already won in the Cup Series. AJ Allmendinger showed in 2021 that the Kaulig Racing equipment can contend with the biggest teams by capturing the road course race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Now Haley will take over this quality equipment while showing off his abilities at superspeedways.

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