(lines courtesy bestfightodds.com)
Bookmakers have given challenger Dan Hardy very little shot at beating UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. Presently, six of the major online sportsbooks have Hardy as at least a 5 to 1 underdog (+500) to beat the champ. To put it simply, if you decided to lay $100 on Dan Hardy to upset GSP, you’d walk away with $500. The odds are likely to go down as the fight draws near, as bettors usually cannot resist the temptation of throwing some money on the underdog when it produces such a large return. If you like Hardy, the time is now.
On the flip side, if you think St. Pierre is a lock to beat Hardy, it’s going to cost you a pretty penny to make any kind of return on the fight. At five of the books, GSP is -800 or better to beat Hardy. This means you’d have to lay $800 down to win $100. Sporting four-ounce gloves and at least a puncher’s chance of knocking St. Pierre out, makes this bet quite the scary proposition.
Looking at the other two major bouts on the card, you’ll find Frank Mir a favorite over Shane Carwin and Thiago Alves a slight favorite over Jon Fitch. I expect the Mir/Carwin line to hold steady as Mir has much more name recognition than Carwin. However, I will be interested to see how the Fitch/Alves line ends up when it is all said and done. Many believe Fitch is a clear favorite in the fight and one could see the line actually reversed by fight time.