Donald Trump, here campaigning in South Carolina, leads in that state and in Nevada. (Getty)
After a heated debate in South Carolina on Saturday, the focus turns to the state’s “First in the South” primary February 20. Donald Trump leads the states poll’s, according to RealClearPolitics, as well as those in the next state, Nevada. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts and PredictWise prediction markets also come down in Trump’s favor.
Delegate Count
| Donald Trump | 17 |
| Ted Cruz | 11 |
| Marco Rubio | 10 |
| John Kasich | 5 |
| Jeb Bush | 4 |
| Ben Carson | 3 |
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
South Carolina: Trump Well Ahead
John Kasich, here at the South Carolina debate, is starting to build momentum in South Carolina, but it might be too late. (Getty)
The Polls
Two new polls from South Carolina show a convincing lead for Trump, with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him and Kasich starting to show momentum.
| Public Policy Polling | Released February 16 |
| Donald Trump | 35% |
| Ted Cruz | 18% |
| Marco Rubio | 18% |
| John Kasich | 10% |
| South Carolina House Republican Committee | Released February 16 |
| Donald Trump | 33% |
| Ted Cruz | 14% |
| Marco Rubio | 14% |
| Jeb Bush | 13% |
| John Kasich | 10% |
| CBS News/YouGov | Released February 14 |
| Donald Trump | 42% |
| Ted Cruz | 20% |
| Marco Rubio | 15% |
| ARG | Released February 14 |
| Donald Trump | 35% |
| John Kasich | 15% |
| Marco Rubio | 14% |
| Ted Cruz | 12% |
| Jeb Bush | 10% |
Trump figures to have actually increased his lead from last week’s polls:
| Augusta Chronicle | Released February 12 |
| Donald Trump | 36% |
| Ted Cruz | 20% |
| Marco Rubio | 15% |
| Jeb Bush | 11% |
RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:
| RealClearPolitics Averages | |
| Donald Trump | 36.3% |
| Ted Cruz | 17.8% |
| Marco Rubio | 15.8% |
With one week to go until South Carolina votes, Trump looks from the state of the polls to add another win to New Hampshire.
The Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:
| Donald Trump | 73% |
| Marco Rubio | 17% |
Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:
| Donald Trump | 85% |
| Ted Cruz | 8% |
The Betting Markets
Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:
| Donald Trump | 88% |
| Ted Cruz | 6% |
Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.