GOP Polls for Feb. 4: State of the Race in New Hampshire & South Carolina

South Carolina

The most recent polls for South Carolina, from CBS News/YouGov and NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal show a Trump advantage of 19 and 16 points, respectively. CBS News/YouGov shows Trump taking 36 percent to Cruz’s 20 percent, with Rubio at 14; NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal gives Trump a full 40 percent, with Cruz at 21 and Rubio 13. Neither of these, though, were taken after the Iowa caucus, so there’s crucial context missing from these numbers.

The RealClearPolitics averages for South Carolina show a 16.3-point lead for Trump at 36, with 19.7 for Cruz, 12.7 for Rubio, and 10 for Jeb Bush.

South Carolina Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 36%
  • Ted Cruz: 19.7%
  • Marco Rubio: 12.7%
  • Jeb Bush: 10%
  • FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projection for South Carolina puts Trump at a 55 percent favorite to win the nomination, with Rubio at 21 and Cruz at 17. Their polls-only projection puts Trump at 70 percent, with 17 for Cruz.

    FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

  • Donald Trump: 55%
  • Marco Rubio: 21%
  • Ted Cruz: 17%
  • In the betting markets aggregated by PredictWise, Trump recovers somewhat from his post-Iowa drop, rising from 42 to 46 percent, with Ted Cruz rising to 26 and Marco Rubio rising to 22.


    The Rest of the Country

    Carly Fiorina polls, Carly Fiorina New Hampshire, Carly Fiorina debate

    Carly Fiorina, here at a campaign event in New Hampshire, disputed her exclusion from the next debate. (Getty)

    A new national poll from Public Policy Polling shows Trump at just 4 points over a Cruz-Rubio tie, 25 to 21 percent, with Carson at 11. It’s the smallest Trump lead of any national poll since November. The RealClearPolitics polling average, narrows the Trump lead to 13.2 with this new poll, at 33.6 percent to 20.4 for Cruz, with Rubio taking 12.2.

    National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

  • Donald Trump: 33.6%
  • Ted Cruz: 20.4%
  • Marco Rubio: 12.2%
  • The PredictWise betting aggregation have returned Marco Rubio to favorite status, rising from 33 percent before Iowa to an odds-on 60 percent, with former odds-on favorite Donald Trump falling to 21 and Ted Cruz at 14.

    News of the Day

  • Carly Fiorina, set to be excluded from Saturday’s debate under the ABC News criteria, disputed her exclusion from the event, citing a caucus finish over several included candidates.

  • GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

    Debate Schedule

    New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

    South Carolina: February 13, CBS

    Texas: February 26, CNN

    Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

    Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

    Primary Schedule
    New Hampshire: February 9

    South Carolina: February 20

    Nevada: February 23

    Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
    Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

    Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

    Puerto Rico: March 6

    Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

    Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

    Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

    Virgin Islands: March 19

    American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

    Wisconsin: April 5

    Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

    Indiana: May 3

    Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

    Oregon: May 17

    Washington: May 24

    California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7


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