2016 Florida Primary Polls: Trump Poised to Win

Donald Trump Florida, Donald Trump polls, Donald Trump 2016

Donald Trump, here at a North Carolina event, is a strong favorite to win Florida. (Getty)


With 99 delegates all going to the winner, Florida is a major prize among the remaining states, and the March 15 primary could go a long way in determining the outcome of the race. Those 99 delegates are a full 7 percent of the remaining delegates, and more than 12 percent of what delegate frontrunner Donald Trump needs to clinch the race before the convention. Meanwhile, it’s a last stand for native son Marco Rubio

Trump has led polls in Florida as far back as last August, according to poll aggregator RealClearPolitics, and polling analyst FiveThirtyEight has him an almost foregone conclusion in its projections. Betting markets provided by PredictWise also havily favor Trump, but with an added wrinkle in that Ted Cruz is hot on Marco Rubio’s runner-up heels.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

The Polls: Trump Significantly Ahead

The polls currently favor Trump by a significant margin:

RealClearPolitics Averages
Donald Trump 43%
Marco Rubio 24.7%
Ted Cruz 18.4%

That’s almost a 20-point lead for Trump. Other than 6- and 9-point leads in two polls last week, the frontrunner hasn’t seen his lead slip to less than 15 since the beginning of the month.

The Projections All Favor Trump

FiveThirtyEight, which calculates polling projections based on past state results and endorsements in its “polls-plus” forecast, has Trump a runaway favorite:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
Donald Trump 97%
Marco Rubio 3%

FiveThirtyEight also offers a “polls-only” projection, which weights the polls based on past accuracy and methodological rigor but doesn’t consider other factors. The result is not much different:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast
Donald Trump 99%
Marco Rubio <1%

The Betting Markets: Rubio Facing Runner-Up Challenge?

The betting markets, as aggregated by PredictWise, continue to show Trump as a heavy favorite. Interestingly, though, Cruz shows up much better in the markets, coming within a point of Rubio. As Florida’s delegates are all awarded to the first-place candidate, this doesn’t mean much but is an interesting result nonetheless.

PredictWise Betting Markets
Donald Trump 85%
Marco Rubio 8%
Ted Cruz 7%