With 99 delegates all going to the winner, Florida is a major prize among the remaining states, and the March 15 primary could go a long way in determining the outcome of the race. Those 99 delegates are a full 7 percent of the remaining delegates, and more than 12 percent of what delegate frontrunner Donald Trump needs to clinch the race before the convention. Meanwhile, it’s a last stand for native son Marco Rubio
Trump has led polls in Florida as far back as last August, according to poll aggregator RealClearPolitics, and polling analyst FiveThirtyEight has him an almost foregone conclusion in its projections. Betting markets provided by PredictWise also havily favor Trump, but with an added wrinkle in that Ted Cruz is hot on Marco Rubio’s runner-up heels.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
The Polls: Trump Significantly Ahead
The polls currently favor Trump by a significant margin:
The Projections All Favor Trump
FiveThirtyEight, which calculates polling projections based on past state results and endorsements in its “polls-plus” forecast, has Trump a runaway favorite:
|FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast|
FiveThirtyEight also offers a “polls-only” projection, which weights the polls based on past accuracy and methodological rigor but doesn’t consider other factors. The result is not much different:
|FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast|
The Betting Markets: Rubio Facing Runner-Up Challenge?
The betting markets, as aggregated by PredictWise, continue to show Trump as a heavy favorite. Interestingly, though, Cruz shows up much better in the markets, coming within a point of Rubio. As Florida’s delegates are all awarded to the first-place candidate, this doesn’t mean much but is an interesting result nonetheless.
|PredictWise Betting Markets|