Clinton vs. Trump: Election Odds for October 24



As election day nears, Hillary Clinton is still highly favored to win, and has a significant lead in most major election forecasts.

According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, Clinton holds a 6.1-lead over Republican rival Donald Trump.

With the majority of national polls projecting a general election victory for Clinton, the Democratic nominee has shifted the focus of her campaign on tight down-ballot races in an effort to capture a Democratic majority in the Senate.

While it is possible that Trump could stage a comeback, it is unprecedented for a candidate to win the election after being this far behind. The GOP nominee is running out of time to change the trajectory of the race.

Another possibility is the polls could be overstating Clinton’s advantage. However, Clinton is still in a reasonably safe position with a 6-point lead, unless there is a large margin of error in the polling. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s chances of winning in their model are about 1 in 7. As pollster Drew Linzer pointed out, such an occurrence is not impossible, but would be rare. A candidate with a 1-in-7 chance to win occurs about one presidential election every 28 years, according to Linzer.

Here is a look at the latest forecast trends.

How Forecasts Compare

NYT Upshot: Clinton 93%, Trump 7%

The New York Times’ Upshot elections model predicts Hillary Clinton has a high probability of winning the election.

Based on the latest state and national polls, Clinton has a 93 percent chance of winning the presidency compared to Trump’s 7 percent.

Since Oct. 17 the Upshot model has shown Clinton has held a 90 percent chance or higher of winning the election.

FiveThirtyEight: Clinton 86.2%, Trump 13.8% (Polls-Only)

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight forecasts have consistently shown Clinton is highly favored to win on Nov. 8. While there haven’t been any major changes in their forecasts over the last several days, Clinton is up a tick or two after Monday’s morning’s polls.

Their polls-plus forecast shows Trump has a 15.9 percent chance compared to Clinton’s 84 percent. The polls-plus forecast takes into account the polls, economy and historical data to make a prediction.

Clinton has a 6.5-percentage-point lead in the popular vote and an 86.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the polls-only forecast.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nowcast, which incorporates new polls very quickly, shows the Democratic nominee having an 86.9 percent chance of winning if the election were to be held today.

PredictWise: Clinton 90%, Trump 10%

In addition to polling-based models from FiveThirtyEight, there is the PredictWise model, which uses information from betting markets to make a prediction.

As of Monday morning, PredictWise shows Clinton has a 90 percent probability of winning the election. Their model has given Clinton a 90 percent chance or higher of winning since Oct. 13.

Daily Kos: Clinton 95%, Trump 5%

Daily Kos shows Clinton currently has a 95 percent chance of winning the presidency. In a simulated electoral votes projection, Clinton has 341 compared to Trump’s 197. Their projections take into account current polling data.

How States Have Shifted

Clinton’s chances increased in several states including Arizona, Texas, Georgia, New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina and Minnesota. Nevada, which has been a toss up for most of the race, appears to be slipping away from Trump. Clinton has led in six of the last seven polls in the state, giving her an average lead of more than four points, according to Real Clear Politics.

Trump’s chances increased slightly in Ohio and Iowa.

What Has Recently Impacted the Predictions?

Throughout September, polls and election forecasts showed Trump was narrowing the gap between him and his Democratic rival. However, that margin has significantly widened since the first presidential debate.

Clinton was credited with winning all three presidential debates, giving her a clean sweep according to the scientific post-debate polls.

Clinton won last week’s final presidential debate, topping Trump by a 13-point margin according to a CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers.

Of the 1,503 registered voters surveyed in a YouGov poll, 49 percent said she was the victor against 39 percent for the real estate mogul, with 12 percent calling it a tie.

Trump’s poll numbers have been on the decline since the release of a 2005 tape in which he made lewd comments about women, and a string of sexual assault allegations.

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