There was a time, about a decade ago, where most sports fans knew so little about the burgeoning analytics movement that we just kind of had to go along with whatever the “experts” told us.
In a lot of cases, that meant those same experts had carte blanche to spit out whatever ridiculous takes they wanted and we all just kind of had to nod our heads and smile like we knew what they were talking about.
We now know that a lot of analytics-based sports arguments fly in the face of reason — and sanity. For example, ones like ESPN’s Seth Walder’s analytics-based “Real MVP” list, which put Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley 22nd in the voting after just the ninth 2,000-yard rushing season in NFL history and his team going 14-3.
The voting seems to discount Barkley’s historic season and for all of Walder’s talk about being an analytics-based poll, the final entry on his list of qualifications clarifies that the voting is very much subjective. And decidedly not analytical.
“I shared my initial list with several colleagues and trusted talent evaluators in NFL front offices to get their expert input,” Walder wrote. “I moved players based on their feedback, particularly if multiple people told me I misjudged a certain player.”
So maybe not so analytical after all.
Barkley Fourth in MVP Voting on His Own Team
The really wild part about Walder’s list is that not only is Barkley 22nd, he’s fourth on his own team behind quarterback Jalen Hurts (No. 14), offensive tackle Lane Johnson (No. 15) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (No. 18).
Barkley was also 1 spot behind Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry — the player he bested for the NFL rushing crown.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen took the No. 1 spot.
“I’m not glazing over Barkley’s massive numbers,” Walder wrote. “But there happens to be two backs with those numbers, and I’m giving Henry the edge … I asked the running back value question to several front office members and got a variety of responses. When comparing Barkley’s value this season to several non-running backs, one person chose against Barkley every time, pointing to the replaceable nature of running backs.
Walder’s MVP voting might be the only place Henry has the edge on Barkley. In real life, Barkley left no doubt as to who had the upper hand.
Another thing to point out is the inherent bias in Walder’s argument with who he talked to. If the people being consulted for the voting were front office executives — the exact group of people trying to drive down running back contract values — then how can we trust anything they say about Barkley, the most valuable running back in the NFL?
Barkley Had Shot at Breaking NFL Record
One thing Walder leaves out of his argument is that Barkley sat out the Eagles’ regular-season finale because his team had already locked up the No. 2 seed in the NFC Playoffs.
Barkley did so with 2,005 rushing yards — putting him just 101 yards short of breaking the NFL single-season record of 2,105 yards set by Los Angeles Rams running back Erick Dickerson in 1984.
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Eagles RB Saquon Barkley Finishes 22nd in ‘Real MVP’ Voting