The Washington Commanders need another miracle from Jayden Daniels to get past the Detroit Lions in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, but the rookie quarterback is tipped to face a particular scheme he’s “by far been at his worst” against since entering the NFL as the second-overall pick in the 2024 draft.
That specific defense is the Cover 2, according to Bradley Locker of Pro Football Focus. He urges the Lions to abandon their usual formula when the defense “has primarily operated out of Cover 1 and Cover 3, utilizing the looks on 52.9% of snaps. Meanwhile, their Cover-2 rate is just 12.3%.”
Instead, Locker wants Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to test Daniels against a coverage the otherwise electric signal-caller hates seeing. As Locker detailed, “Daniels has by far been at his worst when facing Cover 2. His 58.9 PFF passing grade against those looks ranks 32nd out of 43 qualified quarterbacks, and his 5.0% turnover-worthy play rate places 12th highest. Meanwhile, Daniels owns an 82.4 PFF passing grade against Cover 3 and a 68.0 PFF passing grade against Cover 1.”
Keeping two safeties deep at Ford Field on Saturday, January 18, and forcing Daniels to throw into any spaces between five underneath defenders will pose several challenges. Yet, Glenn may be wiser to adopt a plan that served the Lions well in Week 18, a strategy that’s also thwarted Daniels more than once this season.
Lions Can Use Adjustment Commanders Have Already Struggled Against
Glenn helped the Lions secure the No. 1 seed in the national conference by crafting a defense to disrupt the Minnesota Vikings in the final week of the regular season. The plan was to attack quarterback Sam Darnold and his elite wide receivers with physical, press coverage.
It worked because the Lions “blitzed Darnold on 54.5% of his pass attempts and pressured him on 59.1%,” according to ESPN’s Benjamin Solak, who cited Next Gen Stats. The relentless wave of extra rushers was matched by a secondary Next Gen Stats clocked being in “man coverage on 66.7% of dropbacks, the 2nd-highest rate by a defense in a game this season.”
The Lions defense played man coverage on 66.7% of dropbacks, the 2nd-highest rate by a defense in a game this season.
Darnold finished 10 of 28 for 125 yards against man (-20.1% CPOE), while completing only 1 of 9 attempts on dropbacks over four seconds.
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The same combination of blitzing and one-on-one coverage has given Daniels problems in the recent past. Like when the Pittsburgh Steelers sent the blitz after him almost 60 percent of the time back in Week 10.
Daniels handled the pressure well in Tampa, but a more cautious approach from the Lions can test him in other ways.
Cover 2 Puts a Different Kind of Pressure on Jayden Daniels
Specifically, a seven-man coverage shell, taking away the deep area of the field and clogging spaces in the middle, will challenge Daniels to work through his reads quickly. Fortunately for the Commanders, it’s an area where the 24-year-old has made strides as the season’s progressed.
Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury explained how Daniels was adept at quickly getting through his progressions as a Heisman Trophy winner at LSU, per ESPN’s John Keim: “Kingsbury said Daniels’ biggest jump from Jr to Sr year was going through multiple reads, getting to his 3-4th target. ‘What blew me away the most.'”
Kingsbury said Daniels’ biggest jump from Jr to Sr year was going through multiple reads, getting to his 3-4th target. “What blew me away the most,” Kingsbury said.
The Lions have the incentive to put that endorsement to the test. Especially since the Detroit defense can get pressure with just a four-man rush, something crucial to playing Cover 2 successfully.
One of the reasons the Lions are putting so much heat on the pocket has been the trade for Za’Darius Smith. The versatile edge-rusher has four sacks since arriving from the Cleveland Browns in November, and is able to generate pressure from anywhere along the front.
Smith’s impact is summed up by Nate Tice of Yahoo! Sports telling the Ross Tucker Football Podcast, the Lions own “the best pass rush in terms of pressure rate since they traded for Za’Darius Smith in the NFL. And I didn’t know that, until I looked this up. They’re No. 1 in pass rush when they bring four guys.”
“They have the best pass rush in terms of pressure rate since they traded for Za’Darius Smith in the NFL.”
@Nate_Tice with a SHOCKING Detroit Lions stat:
Sending four and filling underneath zones ahead of two-deep coverage will challenge Daniels to make quick reads, but also to stay patient and efficient during long drives. Thankfully, his preternatural calm has served the Commanders well on multiple occasions, including last time out in the playoffs.
If Daniels forces the Lions out of their comfort zone, he can key another major upset.
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Jayden Daniels Tipped to Face Scheme He’s Been ‘Worst’ Against vs. Lions