Bills vs. Cowboys Prediction: Betting Odds, Spread & Pick

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There is controversy swirling around the Dallas Cowboys this week as they prepare to take on the Buffalo Bills in the annual Thanksgiving Day game at AT&T Stadium. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones called out head coach Jason Garrett after Sunday’s tough 13-9 loss to the New England Patriots. The team now has a short week to regroup before facing a Bills team that boasts the third-ranked defense in the NFL.

Buffalo is coming off an impressive 20-3 win over the Denver Broncos last Sunday where they allowed just 134 yards of total offense. Josh Allen has been impressive under center this season. The second-year quarterback has thrown eight touchdowns and just one interception in his last five games. According to ESPN’s FPI, the Cowboys have a 78.5% chance of winning the game.

We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Thursday’s matchup between the Bills and Cowboys.

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Bills vs. Cowboys Game Details

Date: Thursday, November 28
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Spread: Cowboys -6.5
Total: 46.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Movement

This line opened at Cowboys -7 and has been bet down slightly to Cowboys -6.5 at most books, according to The action is favoring the Bills who are receiving 60% of the bets and 70% of the money, according to The Action Network.

The total opened at 45 and has been bet up slightly to 46 at most books with 56% of the bets on the over and 81% of the money coming in on the over.

Betting Trends

  • Bills are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS this season
  • Cowboys are 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS this season
  • Under is 8-3 in Bills games this season
  • Over is 7-4 in Cowboys games this season
  • Bills are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in road games this season
  • The Cowboys are 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in home games this season
  • Under is 4-1 in Bills road games this season
  • Over is 3-2 in Cowboys home games this season

*All trends are courtesy of Covers

Analysis & Picks

The initial line movement here is telling. According to Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker John Murray, there was sharp money that came in early this week on the Bills +7.5 and also on Bills +7, which pushed the line down to Bills +6.5 before most of the general public even got a chance to bet. I think this is a bad matchup for the Cowboys, who come home after a tough physical game against the Pats with another tough physical defense waiting for them. This is also the first time and only time the Bills will be playing on the national stage this season, so you can bet they will be up for this game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are banged up in the trenches with three starting offensive linemen on the injury report this week. La’el Collins, Zack Martin, and Connor Williams all played against New England on Sunday but all three were limited in practice this week. Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch is also questionable with a neck injury and the team does not expect him to play. I’ll take the points here in what should be a close, low-scoring game.

PICK: Bills +6.5 (-110)

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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith

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