Bills vs. Patriots: Point Spread, Total & Prediction

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Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots are 7.5-point favorites against the Bills on Monday Night Football. (Getty)

Editor’s note: The odds below are courtesy of Heavy’s partners at OddsShark. Click here for more NFL odds and betting info at OddsShark.com.


Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, after eking out a late win in Week 10, will try to post a signature win at home against the Buffalo Bills in the Monday Night Football betting matchup.

The Patriots, one of the NFL’s two unbeaten teams, are listed as 7.5-point favorites against the AFC East rival Bills at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Patriots are 11-3 SU in their last 14 MNF games.

Brady has been ultra-efficient while helping New England go 9-0 straight up and 5-2-2 against the spread, posting a 24-to-3 touchdown/interception ratio with multiple TD passes in every game. The 38-year-old QB and his receivers such as WR Danny Amendola and TE Rob Gronkowski will be testing a Bills secondary that allows just 6.6 yards per pass.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick always has a surprise or two ready, but by numbers New England has a big advantage in the ground phase. Its offensive line has thrived at opening holes for RB LeGarrette Blount. The Bills are without DT Kyle Williams, a big cog in their run defense that is allowing 4.1 yards per carry.

The Patriots are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 November games according to the OddsShark NFL Database. Their defense is among the NFL’s top 10 units. The cornerback combo of Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan as well as FS Devin McCourty have excelled at containing receivers, and might pose problems for first-year Bills starting QB Tyrod Taylor.

Coach Rex Ryan’s Bills, who are 5-4 both SU and ATS, have inserted themselves into the AFC Wild Card conversation with back-to-back divisional wins. The Bills, though, will have to buck two trends. They are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after consecutive wins, as well as 2-13 SU in their last 15 games after winning as an underdog.

Buffalo’s chances hinge on their defense, as well as Taylor developing chemistry with talents other than WR Sammy Watkins. The Bills might have a favorable matchup with slot WR Robert Woods working against inexperienced Patriots third CB Rashaan Melvin.

The Bills are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the road against the Patriots in November.

The total for Monday night’s Bills vs. Patriots betting matchup is set at 48 points at the sportsbooks. The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Bills’ last 12 games as underdogs. The total has gone OVER in six of the Patriots’ last eight games as favorites in November.

The OddsShark Computer is projecting a 29.4-15.9 Patriots victory.

Bills vs. Patriots pick: Patriots ATS & SU

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