Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Prediction: Betting Odds, Spread & Pick

Getty Deantre Prince celebrates an interception with Jacquez Jones for Ole Miss

Nothing would make Ole Miss happier than knocking off their bitter rival Mississippi State. The icing on the cake would be if the Rebels also prevented the Bulldogs from going earning a bowl bid. That is what’s at stake on Thursday in Starkville as Ole Miss and Mississippi State battle for the Egg Bowl, renewing a rivalry that dates all the way back to 1901.

Also on the line is the Bulldogs streak of nine consecutive seasons with a bowl appearance dating back to 2010. It’s been a rough season for the Rebels, but they have played better of late against elite competition. Ole Miss lost 20-14 to Auburn and scored 37 points last week in a setback against top-ranked LSU.  The stiff competition should help the Rebels be prepared for this matchup. The Bulldogs are coming off a 45-7 victory over Abilene Christian.

We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for this matchup between these in-state SEC rivals.

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Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Game Details

Date: Thursday, November 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium (Starkville, Mississippi)
TV: ESPN
Spread: Mississippi State -2.5
Total: 58

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook


Line Movement

This line opened at Ole Miss -1 and has been bet all the way to Mississippi State -2.5 at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. Despite the line moving towards the Bulldogs, the action favors the Rebels who are getting 63% of the bets and 62% of the money, according to The Action Network.

The total opened at 58 and has been bet up slightly to 58 with 69% of the bets on the under and 63% of the money on the over.


Betting Trends

  • Ole Miss is 4-7 SU and 7-4 ATS this season
  • Mississippi State is 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS this season
  • Under is 6-5 in Ole Miss games this season
  • Over is 6-5 in Mississippi State games this season
  • Ole Miss is 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS in road games this season
  • Mississippi State is 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS in home games this season
  • Over is 2-2 in Ole Miss road games this season
  • Under is 4-2 in Mississippi State home games this season

*All betting trends are courtesy of Covers


Analysis & Pick

The Egg Bowl is always a fun game. The Bulldogs won this matchup 35-3 last year in Oxford. This year Starkville gets to play host for what should be an entertaining matchup between two teams that have underachieved in 2019. Mississippi State and Ole Miss rank near the bottom of the SEC in scoring defense, so I expect an up-tempo game with plenty of points. The Rebels defense will have to contend with Kylin Hill who has rushed for over 1,200 yards this season with 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has a dynamic rushing attack of their own led by dual-threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee who has a team-high 989 yards on the ground this season. The Rebels rank 7th in FBS with 261.5 rushing yards per game. I think the difference in this game is the consistency for both sides over the past few weeks. While Ole Miss has played Auburn close and hung nearly 40 on LSU, Mississippi State got trounced by Alabama and Texas A&M and could only muster 13 points against the Tigers. Ole Miss seems to be the sharper side at the moment. Take the points.

PICK: Ole Miss +2.5 (-110)


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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith